Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Trump: Just what is an "Executive Order"?

Since Trump took the helm, he has issued at least four Executive Orders.  Based on his personality,  he will continue ruling s... Read More >>

Thursday, January 26, 2017

USA: Trump honeymoon over yet?

Since Trump's November victory, the Dow has surged nine per cent. Quo vadis?  The Dow Jones Industrial Average has crossed the 20,000 lev... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Friday, January 20, 2017

Trump: So who will be the Apprentice?

So who will be teaching whom as of today in America?  Who gets fired first?  Inertia Trump will run the country like he ra... Read More >>

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Hong Kong's Policy Address

The Chief Executive's final policy address was conspicuous in what it omitted CE POLICY ADDRESS Hong Kong’s Chief Executive CY Leung ha... Read More >>

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China:Definitely a worse Economic Time

Get out and stay out of China and her satellite markets!  Wilting RMB Back on 20th December 2016 we advised that the evidence-b... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Greater China: Rising tensions

It is pointless wasting your time on the Greater China markets: their Economic Time® is bad, and geopolitical tensions are rising R... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

China: Why the RMB keeps wilting

China's Economic Time® has worsened. Avoid her and thus Hong Kong's stock markets Changed Economic Clock® On 16th December w... Read More >>

Friday, December 16, 2016

USA & China: Risks of a change in Economic Time

America's Economic Time® keeps improving; China's keeps worsening. America's Economic Time®.  For the past year, America's Econom... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

China and Hong Kong: Why you should sell

 The global Economic Time® is worsening in China and Hong Kong: sell in December and go away. CHINA China is seeking a World Trade Orga... Read More >>

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Radio Show: Why you should look to sell China & Hong Kong

 Start planning to sell both markets: China's Economic Time® is worsening, as is Hong Kong's.   CHINA FX RESERVES China’s f... Read More >>

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Radio Show: America's good Economic Time

Why you should be buying American stocks and bonds. US In a series of tweets overnight, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will be ... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Friday, November 25, 2016

USA: Why inflation is overrated by the bond market

Inflationary fears are overdone in the bond market. That's why you should buy bonds on dips. Firecrackers The  headlines of 23r... Read More >>

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Radio Show: Why US inflation is over-rated

Contrary to what the press writes, America's orders and sentiment are decidedly weak, i.e.non-inflationary US durable goods orders have come... Read More >>

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show: USA: Trump and Markets

Trump's infrastructure spending plans are ineffectual. Why you should buy in to the recent bond market sell-off.in America. US Donald Trump... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Bond Yields: Driven by demography

  The longer we work, the more we save by buying bonds, so yields stay structurally low. Age drives savings  Working w... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, October 20, 2016

China: Good GDP and CPI Data

GDP and inflation are encouraging for those wanting to buy the market. THIRD QUARTER GDP ~Economic Time®: Excess supply of money &... Read More >>

Thursday, October 13, 2016

BREXIT: Why sterling will keep sagging

Sterling will keep sagging because Brexit's path will be stony.  FED MINUTES   Minutes from last month's US Federal Reserve meeting sho... Read More >>

Monday, October 10, 2016

China: Weaker RMB and Disparate Fiscal Policy

In the nearer term, China's monetary policy bodes well for markets. In the longer term, her fiscal policy does not.  Softer  ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Radio Show: Where the IMF is erring

 The IMF just lambasted Central Banks for blocking world growth. We think it's the corrupt politicians who thrive on "Moneyocracy".  Bank... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Why the Fed won't hike next month

   Top three buying themes Water shares (geopolitical: the new "oil") Agricultural (La Nina rears its... Read More >>

Saturday, October 01, 2016

China: Do NOT Buy RMB Bonds

Despite their glitter, is it worth investing in RMB bonds?  Re-weightings In the next year, foreign fund managers intend to do... Read More >>

Friday, September 30, 2016

Radio Show: Why the Fed CANNOT be "independent:"

FED Pressure is mounting on the U.S. Federal Reserve over its independence. At Monday night’s Presidential debate, Donald Trump, accused... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

China's Sixth Plenum: Solidifying Xi's Legacy

Sixth Plenum On Tuesday, 27th September, the Party announced that the sixth Plenum will be held from 24th-26th October, i.e. in just under a mon... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Finance: What to be scared of

Don't worry about China's banks; do worry about America's student and car loans! China's banks According to the Bank for Internatio... Read More >>

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Radio Interview: Sell the RMB and Southeast Asian Markets!

Germany is desperate to keep Britain in the EU; PBOC tightens overnight rates massively to defend the RMB, and why you should not touch southeast ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed: Driving with a rear-view mirror

The Fed is working with an anachronistic model. Keep buying China and America. Deja vu For those (younger) market observers shocked... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Monday, August 22, 2016

China: Plenty of room for fiscal stimulus

China's national debt levels are not worrying, so China can reflate happily - and effectively.  Keep buying.    ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Disfigured valuations: you may as well keep buying high yield bonds

  G3 Central Banks have disfigured the market's pricing mechanism to such a degree that talk of "overvaluation" is misplaced: "overvalued" rel... Read More >>

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Bonds: Taper tantrum II, and what to do about it

Why you should buy into any taper tantrum blitz.  Record bond inflows According to  p.13 of this week end's Financial Time... Read More >>

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Global: Low bond yields; China's disparate growth

Low bond yields mean that the ageing population has to save more, so down goes investment. An improved Economic Time in China keeps suggesting a ... Read More >>

Monday, August 08, 2016

China: The myth of a cheaper RMB boosting exports

We never bought the simplistic story that a cheaper currency on its own boosts exports.  Investment implication: don't be fooled!  ... Read More >>