Sunday, March 25, 2018

Fed rate hike: better safe than sorry

Powell wanted to play it safe intellectually and practically; thus he parroted the usual inflation  myth, and raised rates a smidgen. Do not s... Read More >>

Thursday, March 15, 2018

USD Yield Curve: why it must flatten & what to do about it

The yield curve must flatten once investors move into a 22nd-century inflation mind set. What to do about a flatter yield curve What are the p... Read More >>

Thursday, February 22, 2018

FOMC Outlook: a contrarian's view

Inflation fears are unfounded in facts; thus, bond yields will decline. Expect the Euro to tumble as of 4th March. 1.  FOMC Minutes.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Economic Time: sneak attack from the REAL economy

America's and the global Economic Time is worsening - but not for the reason that you may think. Profits implications. Supranationals' 20/20... Read More >>

Thursday, February 08, 2018

RTHK3 Radio Show Notes: Amazon customers are more powerful than union members!

"If you don't like change, you will like irrelevance even less.".  Well, things have changed. For instance, retailing vs union members. Shoppe... Read More >>

Monday, February 05, 2018

RTHK3 Radio Notes: Kaiser Trump's "State of the Disarray" Speech

Some acerbic remarks re Kaiser Trump's State of the Disarray speech. 1.  State of the Union – or State of Disarray?[1] a.&... Read More >>

Sunday, February 04, 2018

Bond markets: anachronistic sell-off - II

Friday's continued bond sell-off indicates a herd of sheep chasing a rearview mirror... Friday's stock market sell-off was precipitated by a b... Read More >>

Saturday, February 03, 2018

Bond markets: anachronistic sell-off

Buy into bond market weakness: inflation is a chimera Why do you not think the bond bear market has begun? rear view mirror. beca... Read More >>

Monday, January 29, 2018

Attack? What tomorrow's Treasury Report may imply

Kaiser Trump may want to play with his toys and cast himself as a "war time President" in the run up to his own Mueller mess and 6th November Senat... Read More >>

Sunday, January 28, 2018

RTHK 3 Radio Show Notes: no inflation, so a flatter yield curve

With wage-push (demand -pull) inflation virtually dead, there is NO bond bear market. So do NOT buy banks! Protectionism vs globalisation at D... Read More >>

Friday, January 26, 2018

Speaking Notes: Investments and Risks, 2018

The G-3's and China's Economic Time is just fine. But watch out for "unknown unknowns" lurking in the bond market...   I INTRODUCTION T... Read More >>

Saturday, January 20, 2018

The Fed: new triumviate's bullying problem

What follows is brief discussion of the upcoming triumvirate at the U.S. Fed. Significance.  Within the next three to six mont... Read More >>

Friday, January 19, 2018

Oil price:soft landing

The oil price will soften from its current level of about USD 64/barrel (West Texas Intermediate). Demand vs supply.  The staple diet of ... Read More >>

Friday, January 19, 2018

Cryptic Cryptos

Frankly, I get a "Dutch Tulip Moment" when observing this mania.  Some thoughts, along with views on China and on Hong Kong's budget. Cry... Read More >>

Saturday, January 13, 2018

The end of demand-pull inflation

The story of the 1960s-80s is history: no more " too much money chasing too few goods"/ wage-price spirals, i.e. demand pull inflation.  ... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Bond yields: the old normal returns

Bond yields to remain low, in line with history.   Buy on bond market dips 1.  NBER investment blockbuster.  If you are unaware... Read More >>

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Bond market risks: two more "known unknowns"

"Who is over-leveraged in the bond market? How has the legal protection of creditors been eroded, making them more vulnerable? Known unknown... Read More >>

Friday, December 22, 2017

RTHK Radio Show Notes: Tax reform's sophistry

That this reform passed with a majority of two Senate votes reeks of sophistry. China's pragmatism. .  1.  US Tax reform passes House ... Read More >>

Friday, December 22, 2017

Bloomberg Radio Interview. 2018 : Unspoken market risks

The riskiest risks are the "unknown unknowns", tail-gated by the "known unknowns".  1.  What do you see as the biggest risks as we e... Read More >>

Saturday, December 16, 2017

2018: Left-field investing risks

Portfolio thoughts for 2018 -  possibly not being mentioned elsewhere. The Economic Time®.  It will remain robust, charac... Read More >>

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Radio Show notes:Greed is a bad counselor: thoughts on market tumbles and tulip coin

Markets are tumbling because traders are locking-in their bonuses. Meanwhile, bitcoin is going through the roof  - just like tulips did in the... Read More >>

Sunday, November 26, 2017

USA: Why the tax cuts won't go through

They won't go through because of spite. Trump has alienated so many in Congress that they will take out their anger on him by not cutting taxes.&nb... Read More >>

Friday, November 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: profit-taking ensures bonuses; Japan

Forget the excuses behind this Wednesday's market sell-off: traders want to lock in year-end bonuses, so they have to take profits. Some thoughts... Read More >>

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Market Crash Trigger II: leveraged loans

On 9th November we discussed one "known unknown" that could trigger a market crash: bitcoin futures positions on the CBOE or CME collateralized by ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Markets: China Lit IPO = Dead Cash Bounce

In this week's RTHK radio show here in HK I discussed our IPO frenzy, how China's trade flows are overwhelmed by the activity of US multinationals,... Read More >>

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

US interest rates: it's fiscal, NOT the Fed!

I wonder whether markets may be staring at the wrong headlights when looking at the future of US interest rates? It';s fiscal policy that needs mor... Read More >>

Friday, November 03, 2017

Random Thoughts: Bitcoin lending, Jay Powell and Kaiser Trump

FED Probable rate hike this December Key issue: how to fight the next recession? The Fed’s key tool of lowering interest ... Read More >>

Friday, October 27, 2017

China: Can Xi avoid Tacitus' trap?

So what is "Xi Jinping Thought"  about? How does it differ from "Deng Xiaoping Thought?" 1.     “America First&... Read More >>

Thursday, October 19, 2017

China's 19th NPC: Effects on Hong Kong

We are the water skier at the back of the Chinese speed boat.  Depending on where Xi wants to take his Party and China, we must follow - prett... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

China's 19th Party Congress: the key question

If you are unaware of the momentous events about to occur in Beijing 18th - 19th October, please don't waste your time now... The key question... Read More >>

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Hong Kong:Carrie Lam's Maiden Policy Address

The Policy Address of Carrie Lam, our Chief Executive,. was long on detail - but short on vision. 1.   Our overall observations a. ... Read More >>

Monday, October 09, 2017

What will trigger the next market crash?

We read the Financial Times and Economist regularly as part of our intellectual diet.  Both carried articles this week about the non-likelihoo... Read More >>

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Fed Decision

Much ado about nothing. The Fed decides to start tapering (again) and to not increase rates just yet. waiting for Godot? 1. Little to add.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Saturday, August 26, 2017

Crisis: when the bubble is the asset

Many bright commentators gnash their teeth about the threat of asset bubbles.  We see the risk elsewhere. Asset bubbles. It will not ha... Read More >>

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Trump, Jackson Hole

Soon the markets will take Trump's brassy trumpettes for what they are: background noise.  Forget any policy statement by Draghi at Jackson Ho... Read More >>

Saturday, August 19, 2017

China's Stocks: A Primer

Ever got confused by China's alphabet soup when it comes to As, Hs, Ps,  and Red Chips? Let's clear the fog! Source. The following commen... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Monday, August 14, 2017

No ETF bubble

The press is agonising about this.  We question why. Bubble trouble. For some months we have voiced concerns about a  stock market... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

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