Thursday, December 07, 2017

Radio Show notes:Greed is a bad counselor: thoughts on market tumbles and tulip coin

Markets are tumbling because traders are locking-in their bonuses. Meanwhile, bitcoin is going through the roof  - just like tulips did in the... Read More >>

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Markets: China Lit IPO = Dead Cash Bounce

In this week's RTHK radio show here in HK I discussed our IPO frenzy, how China's trade flows are overwhelmed by the activity of US multinationals,... Read More >>

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

US interest rates: it's fiscal, NOT the Fed!

I wonder whether markets may be staring at the wrong headlights when looking at the future of US interest rates? It';s fiscal policy that needs mor... Read More >>

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Sunday, June 18, 2017

USA & China: Mini Super-Tuesday

This Tuesday will reveal whether Georgia will elect a Democrat congresswoman AND whether the MSCI will embrace  China’s A shares.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Economic Time and Your Investing

Here are the notes to an investment  speech which I gave on 9th June here in Hong Kong: the Economic Clock®, social unrest, defence and ed... Read More >>

Thursday, June 01, 2017

USA: Worsening Economic Time as of 2H18

Based on their anachronistic thinking about inflation, the Fed will overshoot when raising rates. That will choke the economy. When do markets star... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

China: Why the RMB keeps wilting

China's Economic Time® has worsened. Avoid her and thus Hong Kong's stock markets Changed Economic Clock® On 16th December w... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Radio Show: Where the IMF is erring

 The IMF just lambasted Central Banks for blocking world growth. We think it's the corrupt politicians who thrive on "Moneyocracy".  Bank... Read More >>

Monday, August 08, 2016

China: The myth of a cheaper RMB boosting exports

We never bought the simplistic story that a cheaper currency on its own boosts exports.  Investment implication: don't be fooled!  ... Read More >>

Friday, August 05, 2016

RTHK Radio Show: Asset Allocation

 Buy Hong Kong - but avoid our banks.  Buy India, but with a view to a quick, liquid exit.   Here are the notes made in preparation... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Monday, August 01, 2016

China: The RMB flunks the safe haven test

On 1st October, the RMB will become the mushiest member of the SDR: it is NOT a safe haven currency, and it will keep depreciating steadily. ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Radio Show: The Fed, the BoJ and PBoC

Investment implications of the newest moves by the Fed and BoJ; why China's shadow banks are less risky than the lenders to SOEs. FED The Fed ... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

China: why A-shares will get included in the MSCI

We'll join the herd and predict unoriginally that China's A-Share index directly will be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EMI). T... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Currencies, the US stock market, & Greece

A rising US stock market will keep propelling the dollar; the opposite holds true for the RMB. US DOLLAR The surging US dollar is having ripples ... Read More >>

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Central Banks: policy contradictions

What both banks pretend to be targeting in terms of inflation is contradicted by their actions. Investment implications.  Inflation... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: Potential policy blunders

Collateralized debt obligations and Keynesian fiscal expansion are dangerous and misguided. Investment implications. "The Big Short" ... Read More >>

Sunday, March 06, 2016

China: five key policy issues

What are the five key issues demanding discussion at the National People's Congress? Change in leadership style The South China Mor... Read More >>

Saturday, February 06, 2016

RMB & HKD: Chinese New Year attacks

This coming Monday - Wednesday, 8th -10th February, expect the RMB and HKD to be attacked. Chinese New Year Being a lunar festival, ... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

RTHK Radio: Europe and seven investment themes

Why you should short the Euro. Seven investment themes, some odd ones, for 2016. 1. The Euro and the European Union For the EU headline the Finla... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Saturday, November 14, 2015

RMB: a secondary SDR member by 30/11/15

What happens if the RMB is included in the SDR basket by the end of November? Investment implications? We all know that the IMF 's main  boar... Read More >>

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Abenomics: Chasing elephants with three pop guns

The Japanese ocean liner keeps sinking in the mire of vested interests; new "arrows" are blunt Gross depressed product A couple of w... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Monday, August 24, 2015

China: (At least) five Renminbi positives

China: (At least) five Renminbi positives The end of the world is NOT nigh just because the RMB skidded briefly by under two per cent last Tuesday... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece and Germany: Profitable paradox

Greece and Germany: Profitable  paradox In each case, the  conservatives are playing OPPOSITE roles. How to profit off this bifurcation... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Push for reforms, consumption, productivity growth key to Asia’s future

Enzio von Pfeil is interviewed by The Edge Singapore and outlines why the push for reforms, consumption and productivity growth are key to Asia&r... Read More >>

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Infighting in Beijing

There is lots of infighting in Beijing about how to control the economy: just who's in charge, anyway? Here are some wars that will result. Like... Read More >>

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Stronger dollar heralds debt crises

Stronger dollar heralds debt crises  Since December we have been warning that the stronger dollar will hurt emerging markets. How? ... Read More >>

Sunday, June 28, 2015

China: Why buy into market weakness?

Everyone knows that the Chinese markets took an 8%  pummeling last week, especially on Friday. Why we think that this represents a buyi... Read More >>

Sunday, June 21, 2015

China: Why the RMB must soften

We remain  fundamental China optimists. However, with the introduction of QDII2 this year, expect the RMB to soften: good news for exporters. ... Read More >>

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