Sunday, March 25, 2018

Fed rate hike: better safe than sorry

Powell wanted to play it safe intellectually and practically; thus he parroted the usual inflation  myth, and raised rates a smidgen. Do not s... Read More >>

Thursday, February 22, 2018

FOMC Outlook: a contrarian's view

Inflation fears are unfounded in facts; thus, bond yields will decline. Expect the Euro to tumble as of 4th March. 1.  FOMC Minutes.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Economic Time: sneak attack from the REAL economy

America's and the global Economic Time is worsening - but not for the reason that you may think. Profits implications. Supranationals' 20/20... Read More >>

Monday, February 05, 2018

RTHK3 Radio Notes: Kaiser Trump's "State of the Disarray" Speech

Some acerbic remarks re Kaiser Trump's State of the Disarray speech. 1.  State of the Union – or State of Disarray?[1] a.&... Read More >>

Saturday, February 03, 2018

Bond markets: anachronistic sell-off

Buy into bond market weakness: inflation is a chimera Why do you not think the bond bear market has begun? rear view mirror. beca... Read More >>

Sunday, January 28, 2018

RTHK 3 Radio Show Notes: no inflation, so a flatter yield curve

With wage-push (demand -pull) inflation virtually dead, there is NO bond bear market. So do NOT buy banks! Protectionism vs globalisation at D... Read More >>

Friday, January 26, 2018

Speaking Notes: Investments and Risks, 2018

The G-3's and China's Economic Time is just fine. But watch out for "unknown unknowns" lurking in the bond market...   I INTRODUCTION T... Read More >>

Saturday, January 20, 2018

The Fed: new triumviate's bullying problem

What follows is brief discussion of the upcoming triumvirate at the U.S. Fed. Significance.  Within the next three to six mont... Read More >>

Friday, January 19, 2018

Oil price:soft landing

The oil price will soften from its current level of about USD 64/barrel (West Texas Intermediate). Demand vs supply.  The staple diet of ... Read More >>

Friday, January 19, 2018

Cryptic Cryptos

Frankly, I get a "Dutch Tulip Moment" when observing this mania.  Some thoughts, along with views on China and on Hong Kong's budget. Cry... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Bond yields: the old normal returns

Bond yields to remain low, in line with history.   Buy on bond market dips 1.  NBER investment blockbuster.  If you are unaware... Read More >>

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Bond market risks: two more "known unknowns"

"Who is over-leveraged in the bond market? How has the legal protection of creditors been eroded, making them more vulnerable? Known unknown... Read More >>

Saturday, December 16, 2017

2018: Left-field investing risks

Portfolio thoughts for 2018 -  possibly not being mentioned elsewhere. The Economic Time®.  It will remain robust, charac... Read More >>

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Radio Show notes:Greed is a bad counselor: thoughts on market tumbles and tulip coin

Markets are tumbling because traders are locking-in their bonuses. Meanwhile, bitcoin is going through the roof  - just like tulips did in the... Read More >>

Friday, November 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: profit-taking ensures bonuses; Japan

Forget the excuses behind this Wednesday's market sell-off: traders want to lock in year-end bonuses, so they have to take profits. Some thoughts... Read More >>

Thursday, November 09, 2017

Markets: China Lit IPO = Dead Cash Bounce

In this week's RTHK radio show here in HK I discussed our IPO frenzy, how China's trade flows are overwhelmed by the activity of US multinationals,... Read More >>

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

US interest rates: it's fiscal, NOT the Fed!

I wonder whether markets may be staring at the wrong headlights when looking at the future of US interest rates? It';s fiscal policy that needs mor... Read More >>

Friday, November 03, 2017

Random Thoughts: Bitcoin lending, Jay Powell and Kaiser Trump

FED Probable rate hike this December Key issue: how to fight the next recession? The Fed’s key tool of lowering interest ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 19, 2017

China's 19th NPC: Effects on Hong Kong

We are the water skier at the back of the Chinese speed boat.  Depending on where Xi wants to take his Party and China, we must follow - prett... Read More >>

Thursday, October 12, 2017

Hong Kong:Carrie Lam's Maiden Policy Address

The Policy Address of Carrie Lam, our Chief Executive,. was long on detail - but short on vision. 1.   Our overall observations a. ... Read More >>

Monday, October 09, 2017

What will trigger the next market crash?

We read the Financial Times and Economist regularly as part of our intellectual diet.  Both carried articles this week about the non-likelihoo... Read More >>

Thursday, September 21, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Fed Decision

Much ado about nothing. The Fed decides to start tapering (again) and to not increase rates just yet. waiting for Godot? 1. Little to add.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Trump, Jackson Hole

Soon the markets will take Trump's brassy trumpettes for what they are: background noise.  Forget any policy statement by Draghi at Jackson Ho... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Thursday, July 27, 2017

US Fed: Two black swan crises

Not yet in the market are two crises which will confront the Fed shortly.  These are left field black swan risks, i.e. they are subtle and jus... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Fed Minutes of 13th - 14th June 2017: Crash 4Q17-2H18

We focus on a) the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, b) the Fed's concerns about low inflation, and c) her concerns about high asset prices and... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

The Fallible Fed: 50+ years of policy "wrongness"

Those "experts"at the Fed are no better than "Joe Sixpack" at forecasting - but they are more powerful.  What follows are 50 years of  po... Read More >>

Sunday, June 18, 2017

USA & China: Mini Super-Tuesday

This Tuesday will reveal whether Georgia will elect a Democrat congresswoman AND whether the MSCI will embrace  China’s A shares.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Economic Time and Your Investing

Here are the notes to an investment  speech which I gave on 9th June here in Hong Kong: the Economic Clock®, social unrest, defence and ed... Read More >>

Thursday, June 01, 2017

USA: Worsening Economic Time as of 2H18

Based on their anachronistic thinking about inflation, the Fed will overshoot when raising rates. That will choke the economy. When do markets star... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 26, 2017

USA: Trump honeymoon over yet?

Since Trump's November victory, the Dow has surged nine per cent. Quo vadis?  The Dow Jones Industrial Average has crossed the 20,000 lev... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Friday, January 20, 2017

Trump: So who will be the Apprentice?

So who will be teaching whom as of today in America?  Who gets fired first?  Inertia Trump will run the country like he ra... Read More >>

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