Friday, November 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: profit-taking ensures bonuses; Japan

Forget the excuses behind this Wednesday's market sell-off: traders want to lock in year-end bonuses, so they have to take profits. Some thoughts... Read More >>

Tuesday, November 07, 2017

US interest rates: it's fiscal, NOT the Fed!

I wonder whether markets may be staring at the wrong headlights when looking at the future of US interest rates? It';s fiscal policy that needs mor... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

China's Sixth Plenum: Solidifying Xi's Legacy

Sixth Plenum On Tuesday, 27th September, the Party announced that the sixth Plenum will be held from 24th-26th October, i.e. in just under a mon... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Bonds: Taper tantrum II, and what to do about it

Why you should buy into any taper tantrum blitz.  Record bond inflows According to  p.13 of this week end's Financial Time... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Negative rates: why they cannot depress currencies

How come negative interest rates have stopped depressing  their respective currencies? Investment implications. Backgrounder T... Read More >>

Friday, January 15, 2016

Hong Kong/China: a political "sell"

Received wisdom is that Pres. Xi Jinping is a hard liner.  What his centralisation means for market regulation and Hong Kong.  ... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Push for reforms, consumption, productivity growth key to Asia’s future

Enzio von Pfeil is interviewed by The Edge Singapore and outlines why the push for reforms, consumption and productivity growth are key to Asia&r... Read More >>

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Infighting in Beijing

There is lots of infighting in Beijing about how to control the economy: just who's in charge, anyway? Here are some wars that will result. Like... Read More >>

Sunday, June 28, 2015

China: Why buy into market weakness?

Everyone knows that the Chinese markets took an 8%  pummeling last week, especially on Friday. Why we think that this represents a buyi... Read More >>

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Drachma Drama: Buying opportunity

Even if Tsipras probably will be ousted  as of 5th July, the Greeks have won the game of chicken: Europeans are so desperate to keep them in t... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

China: a profitable June looms

This June, both the MSCI and probably the IMF will announce inclusion of China in their respective  baskets. Keep buying. Promising signs... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Hong Kong/China & oil: today's radio show

Why you must buy China and Hong Kong stocks - and why you must short oil.     Have a listen at http://programme.rthk.hk/channel/radi... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Roadmaps: Grexit and a crash this Fall

Here is how much Greece must pay whom and by when, followed by an overall roadmap for that market tumble this Fall. Greece's  payment de... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

No Grexit: by the recalcitrant child

 Some more on Athens-fried chicken: why there won't be a Grexit, and why the child remains recalcitrant Cooped-up chickens.  Just a ... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Europe & Japan: Overweight

Just go with the flow and buy these two markets: liquidity-driven upside whilst politicians kick the empty & noisy can of reforms down the road... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Bloomberg TV Show: Singapore, the dollar and China

My Bloomberg TV show of this morning on Singapore's looming issues, the rising dollar and healing China http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-0... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Friday, March 06, 2015

China's growth model evolving

Self-flagellation. Just yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang castigated his own government for all of the flaws which it is making in the growth depa... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

USA: Yellen Tantrum

Even though the Fed probably will raise rates by September, we do NOT foresee life-threatening inflation, so real rates rise. However, we do forese... Read More >>

Monday, January 26, 2015

Greek elections: plus ca meme chose

Tactical volte face.  Readers know that just this Friday, 23rd January, we caved-in to the market reality stronger European bourses, cour... Read More >>

Friday, January 23, 2015

Tactical volte face: go long Europe

Structurally bearish on Europe.  Readers know of my distaste for European politicians: they won't reform their economies, and can get awa... Read More >>

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Video Clip: Interview with Asia Asset

Here is a clip of my recent video interview with Asia Asset: http://www.asiaasset.com/0115_video_pcl.aspx Read More >>

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

June outlook:cheap gold in the mush of 1H15

Our coverage of oil.  More recently,  we have issued four blogs on this slippery subject. In the first piece  on 8th ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

China: Xi will pursue more graft than growth in 2015

Money can't help. in mid-November we issued a missive on how China's small- and medium-sized enterprises cannot be helped by official brandish... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Submerging Markets Crises: Exit strategies

Bank for International Settlements.  The BIS has been warning of another submerging markets crisis since is Quarterly Review of this Sept... Read More >>

Monday, December 15, 2014

Japan: Gross depressed result

Gross depressed product. Just a little while ago we pixeled a piece about Japan's 3Q14 Gross Depressed Product.  Our key take away: don't... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Submerging markets' worsening Economic Time

Take-aways.  On 29th November we released pixels  arguing that a) a weaker oil prices drives up the dollar and b) a stronger do... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Commodities: A supply-side idea

Blues.  Yesterday, the Bloomberg Commodity Index plunged to its lowest since May 2009, i.e. a five-year low. Consequently, the Australian... Read More >>

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Dollar: Simple take-aways

Winners & losers. Recently we wrote a piece identifying winners and losers when it comes to the lower oil price. Dollar & oil.&nbs... Read More >>

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Peoples' Blank of China: Nice try, but...

Lower rates. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) just this Friday: 1) lowered its benchmark one-year lending rate by 40 basis points (bp), to 5.... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Shanghai/Hong Kong: Through - tram

Monday. As we all know, the "through-train" was announced this Monday. I prefer to call it a "through-tram" given that the event was heavily d... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Japan: Gross Depressed Product

Recent blues.  Just this Monday, we all discovered that  Japan's GDP contracted by an annualized 1.6% during 3Q14; this co... Read More >>

Friday, November 14, 2014

China: More money cannot help SMEs

Structural obstacles.  In our recent missive, we noted that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)  are cut off from the credit ... Read More >>

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