Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Thoughts on Super Thursday

SUPER THURSDAY -Notes for today’s RTHK radio show, Hong Kong: UK election, ECB and Comey's testimony- 1. UK ELECTION a. Here are my observati... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Radio Show: Why you must avoid financial stocks

Plenty of Brussels Fudge being made in the company of Merkel and Renzi. Don't "eat" (aka buy) their story: there IS a financial crisis in Europe! ... Read More >>

Monday, July 04, 2016

Asset Allocation: Brussels fudge and Hong Kong's stale noodles

 Why you should underweight Europe and Hong Kong. 1.  Dominoes falling in Europe - where else might follow? Political as well as r... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece and Germany: Profitable paradox

Greece and Germany: Profitable  paradox In each case, the  conservatives are playing OPPOSITE roles. How to profit off this bifurcation... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Push for reforms, consumption, productivity growth key to Asia’s future

Enzio von Pfeil is interviewed by The Edge Singapore and outlines why the push for reforms, consumption and productivity growth are key to Asia&r... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Greece is winning the game of chicken, so buy into weakness

More of the same? All politics are domestic, as Tip O'Neil observed so brilliantly so many years ago. Tsipras has eroded is domestic pol... Read More >>

Friday, July 10, 2015

China and Europe are on sale: load-up!

Chinese caving-in The market upturn was predictable; expect more Central Bank easing. Europeans caving-in Tsipras is w... Read More >>

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Drachma Drama: Buying opportunity

Even if Tsipras probably will be ousted  as of 5th July, the Greeks have won the game of chicken: Europeans are so desperate to keep them in t... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Friday, May 08, 2015

Greece: she wins game of chicken by 29/5

"GR" in Grexit should stand  for "Good Riddance". Yet another roadmap to oblivion. The Greeks keep winning this game of chicken!   T... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

No Grexit: by the recalcitrant child

 Some more on Athens-fried chicken: why there won't be a Grexit, and why the child remains recalcitrant Cooped-up chickens.  Just a ... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Grexit: game of chicken or Good Riddance?

    Greece prepares to declare default.  What might this mean for markets? Game, set, match. Perhaps presciently on 1s... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Europe & Japan: Overweight

Just go with the flow and buy these two markets: liquidity-driven upside whilst politicians kick the empty & noisy can of reforms down the road... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Bloomberg TV Show: Singapore, the dollar and China

My Bloomberg TV show of this morning on Singapore's looming issues, the rising dollar and healing China http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-0... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Swiss Franc: Sell now!

By 1st April, individuals must PAY a tax of 0.75% on their Swiss Franc cash holdings What we got wrong.  On 16th January, we a... Read More >>

Friday, March 06, 2015

China's growth model evolving

Self-flagellation. Just yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang castigated his own government for all of the flaws which it is making in the growth depa... Read More >>

Monday, January 26, 2015

Greek elections: plus ca meme chose

Tactical volte face.  Readers know that just this Friday, 23rd January, we caved-in to the market reality stronger European bourses, cour... Read More >>

Friday, October 24, 2014

Sunday ALERT: ECB's stress tests released

 Aberration. Our readers know that I work on about a six-month time horizon, so today's note is an aberration in that we are discussing s... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

The Smells of Europe's Death Knells: high taxes and high rates

Readers know of my skepticism of that "one size fits all" Euro. I am not sure at all that this Euro has helped German exporters, for instance. What... Read More >>

Monday, September 23, 2013

Germany’s Deathly Dance

These controversial thoughts are not ones that you will find in any mainstream press! They certainly are unpopular with my German friends, but I am... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

China, Japan & Europe: Strategic "Avoids"

Tomorrow I will be on Bloomberg TV at 11:40 AM Hong Kong time.  Here are some thoughts that I will share  on the three subjects highlight... Read More >>

Monday, March 25, 2013

Cyprus: Nirvana or false dawn? This marriage is worsening

We needn't review the package agreed to in Brussels. You have that already. This "deal" and market exhuberance probably is just  another false... Read More >>

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Europe: Don’t believe the illusion!

Readers know that I am particularly bearish on Europe, having lived in that beautiful museum for 20 years. Problem is that instead of being full of... Read More >>

Monday, December 24, 2012

Strategic Asset Allocation 2013: Unseen storm clouds

Please excuse the lapse in posting my thoughts. Something funny was happening in Cyberspace, no doubt stemming from the Mayan Culture's forecast of... Read More >>

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Naked Emperor: Why the Euro cover-up?

We just bellowed on Bloomberg this morning about the hypocrisy of the Euro's negotiators. Just how stupid do they think that we all are?  Does... Read More >>

Thursday, November 15, 2012

European Kleptocrats: Investment implications

A couple of days ago we aired investment implications of overall political irresponsibility. Today we hone-in on the disaster unravelling in Europ... Read More >>

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Irresponsible politicians: Investment Implications

Something has dawned on us: there is a pervasive :dis-connect: between consitutents (i.e. the population at large) and their politicians - whether ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Why the Euro must crack and thus why America must win

Tomorrow, Friday, Bloomberg TV-Europe has invited me at 12:10 noon, HK time.  Here are my acerbic thoughts on the Euro.  Having lived so ... Read More >>

Friday, October 05, 2012

European banks: putting them into perspective

Having just returned from holidays in bubbling London and vibrant Berlin, we return to Hong Kong in a glum mood about the Euro.Particularly German ... Read More >>

Thursday, September 13, 2012

Karlsruhe: how to invest ahead of a terrible outcome later on

Just yesterday we advised investors to scratch beneath the surface of that  "good" decision by the German Constitutional Court (GCC) proc... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Karlsruhe: the devil lurks in the detail

As all of us know, Germany's Constitutional Court (Verfassungsgericht) is pronouncing today at 10:00 AM  German time on the legality of German... Read More >>

Friday, September 07, 2012

ECB: the tail truly is wagging the dog

Just two days ago we emphasized that Draghi has become the submissive poodle of the Meditarraneans ("Meds"), meaning that the ECB has been castrate... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

ECB: Into the dog house, where appeasement reigns

These are some acerbic notes that I have made for my Bloomberg TV interview here in HK today at 12:10 noon.  -     &... Read More >>

Friday, August 31, 2012

Sector Allocation: Avoid Chinese and European Banks

For some time, many market players have prayed for an improved global economy - in our jargon, an improved global Economic Time.  We keep warn... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Investment Thoughts

Markets continue gyrating, as we all know.  This has political as well as sound economic reasons, what with our Economic Clock® continuing... Read More >>

Thursday, May 03, 2012

Europe: time to short

A looming voter backlash will unsettle the markets and thus the Euro. This suggests caution by the investor. We give you three ways to exercise cau... Read More >>