Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

The Fallible Fed: 50+ years of policy "wrongness"

Those "experts"at the Fed are no better than "Joe Sixpack" at forecasting - but they are more powerful.  What follows are 50 years of  po... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Finance: What to be scared of

Don't worry about China's banks; do worry about America's student and car loans! China's banks According to the Bank for Internatio... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Monday, August 22, 2016

China: Plenty of room for fiscal stimulus

China's national debt levels are not worrying, so China can reflate happily - and effectively.  Keep buying.    ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Monday, July 04, 2016

Asset Allocation: Brussels fudge and Hong Kong's stale noodles

 Why you should underweight Europe and Hong Kong. 1.  Dominoes falling in Europe - where else might follow? Political as well as r... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Negative rates: why they cannot depress currencies

How come negative interest rates have stopped depressing  their respective currencies? Investment implications. Backgrounder T... Read More >>

Friday, January 15, 2016

Hong Kong/China: a political "sell"

Received wisdom is that Pres. Xi Jinping is a hard liner.  What his centralisation means for market regulation and Hong Kong.  ... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Friday, September 25, 2015

Automated trading reduces markets' predictiveness

Enzio von Pfeil discusses why automated trading reduces markets' predictiveness on this RTHK podcast. Enjoy! Read More >>

Friday, September 18, 2015

USA: the Fed and the Economic Time

Why buy the markets of America, China, Japan and Europe? Why we were wrong We focused on different numbers than the Fed has. We foc... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece and Germany: Profitable paradox

Greece and Germany: Profitable  paradox In each case, the  conservatives are playing OPPOSITE roles. How to profit off this bifurcation... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Push for reforms, consumption, productivity growth key to Asia’s future

Enzio von Pfeil is interviewed by The Edge Singapore and outlines why the push for reforms, consumption and productivity growth are key to Asia&r... Read More >>

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Drachma Drama: Buying opportunity

Even if Tsipras probably will be ousted  as of 5th July, the Greeks have won the game of chicken: Europeans are so desperate to keep them in t... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

China: a profitable June looms

This June, both the MSCI and probably the IMF will announce inclusion of China in their respective  baskets. Keep buying. Promising signs... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Hong Kong/China & oil: today's radio show

Why you must buy China and Hong Kong stocks - and why you must short oil.     Have a listen at http://programme.rthk.hk/channel/radi... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Roadmaps: Grexit and a crash this Fall

Here is how much Greece must pay whom and by when, followed by an overall roadmap for that market tumble this Fall. Greece's  payment de... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Grexit: game of chicken or Good Riddance?

    Greece prepares to declare default.  What might this mean for markets? Game, set, match. Perhaps presciently on 1s... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Friday, March 06, 2015

China's growth model evolving

Self-flagellation. Just yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang castigated his own government for all of the flaws which it is making in the growth depa... Read More >>

Monday, January 26, 2015

Greek elections: plus ca meme chose

Tactical volte face.  Readers know that just this Friday, 23rd January, we caved-in to the market reality stronger European bourses, cour... Read More >>

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Worsening Economic Time

1. Recently we pontificated about China's state-owned banks, arguing that once  they do get exposed to the cutting winds of competition, ... Read More >>

Monday, January 06, 2014

2014: Of financial drones, the trash crash and investment opportunities

Apologies for dithering so long, but I had to find out how to post blogs on our new webmaster's page. In a nutshell, 2014 will be characterised by ... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Japan: Morbidnomics

Here are the notes that I created for my Bloomberg "Asia Edge" TV show yesterday, 11th June, at 11:40 AM here in Hong Kong:  1. The BOJ will a... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Collateral transformation: Wall Street's newest hoax

Etymologically, "hoax" is derived from "hocus-pocus". It, in turn, has some roots in the name ascribed to magicians and jugglers in ... Read More >>

Monday, December 24, 2012

Strategic Asset Allocation 2013: Unseen storm clouds

Please excuse the lapse in posting my thoughts. Something funny was happening in Cyberspace, no doubt stemming from the Mayan Culture's forecast of... Read More >>

Thursday, December 06, 2012

In Gold we trust: North Korea’s Mistletoes and bankrupt democracies

Not few pundits out here, particularly staff, have feared that the end of the world happens on 21st December. If you believe your cleaner's story, ... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

USA: fin de cycle, now that markets have got real

We all know why markets have been tumbling for a  while, something which we had foreseen - much to our surprise, of course. So let's delve a l... Read More >>

Monday, October 22, 2012

Strategic Asset Allocation: What to buy in America, China (and Australia)

Readers know that we have railed against the US "recovery" and have been suggesting that China's Economic Time would begin improving as of 4Q12.&nb... Read More >>