Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Fed Minutes of 13th - 14th June 2017: Crash 4Q17-2H18

We focus on a) the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, b) the Fed's concerns about low inflation, and c) her concerns about high asset prices and... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

The Fallible Fed: 50+ years of policy "wrongness"

Those "experts"at the Fed are no better than "Joe Sixpack" at forecasting - but they are more powerful.  What follows are 50 years of  po... Read More >>

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Central Bank Fog, Bank Stress Tests and HK 20 years on

CONFUSING SMOKE SIGNALS[1] Central bank fears.  Quite correctly, Central Banks fear the return of inflation.  Given my ... Read More >>

Sunday, June 25, 2017

The Fed and the Treasury: Who is boss?

We all know that the Fed is in the business of controlling its mini-rates, the Fed Funds. But with the unwinding of QE, it just could be that the T... Read More >>

Sunday, June 18, 2017

USA & China: Mini Super-Tuesday

This Tuesday will reveal whether Georgia will elect a Democrat congresswoman AND whether the MSCI will embrace  China’s A shares.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Economic Time and Your Investing

Here are the notes to an investment  speech which I gave on 9th June here in Hong Kong: the Economic Clock®, social unrest, defence and ed... Read More >>

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Thoughts on Super Thursday

SUPER THURSDAY -Notes for today’s RTHK radio show, Hong Kong: UK election, ECB and Comey's testimony- 1. UK ELECTION a. Here are my observati... Read More >>

Thursday, June 01, 2017

USA: Worsening Economic Time as of 2H18

Based on their anachronistic thinking about inflation, the Fed will overshoot when raising rates. That will choke the economy. When do markets star... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Trump: Just what is an "Executive Order"?

Since Trump took the helm, he has issued at least four Executive Orders.  Based on his personality,  he will continue ruling s... Read More >>

Thursday, January 26, 2017

USA: Trump honeymoon over yet?

Since Trump's November victory, the Dow has surged nine per cent. Quo vadis?  The Dow Jones Industrial Average has crossed the 20,000 lev... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Friday, January 20, 2017

Trump: So who will be the Apprentice?

So who will be teaching whom as of today in America?  Who gets fired first?  Inertia Trump will run the country like he ra... Read More >>

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Hong Kong's Policy Address

The Chief Executive's final policy address was conspicuous in what it omitted CE POLICY ADDRESS Hong Kong’s Chief Executive CY Leung ha... Read More >>

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China:Definitely a worse Economic Time

Get out and stay out of China and her satellite markets!  Wilting RMB Back on 20th December 2016 we advised that the evidence-b... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 04, 2017

Greater China: Rising tensions

It is pointless wasting your time on the Greater China markets: their Economic Time® is bad, and geopolitical tensions are rising R... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

China: Why the RMB keeps wilting

China's Economic Time® has worsened. Avoid her and thus Hong Kong's stock markets Changed Economic Clock® On 16th December w... Read More >>

Friday, December 16, 2016

USA & China: Risks of a change in Economic Time

America's Economic Time® keeps improving; China's keeps worsening. America's Economic Time®.  For the past year, America's Econom... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

China and Hong Kong: Why you should sell

 The global Economic Time® is worsening in China and Hong Kong: sell in December and go away. CHINA China is seeking a World Trade Orga... Read More >>

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Radio Show: Why you should look to sell China & Hong Kong

 Start planning to sell both markets: China's Economic Time® is worsening, as is Hong Kong's.   CHINA FX RESERVES China’s f... Read More >>

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Radio Show: America's good Economic Time

Why you should be buying American stocks and bonds. US In a series of tweets overnight, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will be ... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Friday, November 25, 2016

USA: Why inflation is overrated by the bond market

Inflationary fears are overdone in the bond market. That's why you should buy bonds on dips. Firecrackers The  headlines of 23r... Read More >>

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Radio Show: Why US inflation is over-rated

Contrary to what the press writes, America's orders and sentiment are decidedly weak, i.e.non-inflationary US durable goods orders have come... Read More >>

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show: USA: Trump and Markets

Trump's infrastructure spending plans are ineffectual. Why you should buy in to the recent bond market America. US Donald Trump... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Bond Yields: Driven by demography

  The longer we work, the more we save by buying bonds, so yields stay structurally low. Age drives savings  Working w... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, October 20, 2016

China: Good GDP and CPI Data

GDP and inflation are encouraging for those wanting to buy the market. THIRD QUARTER GDP ~Economic Time®: Excess supply of money &... Read More >>

Thursday, October 13, 2016

BREXIT: Why sterling will keep sagging

Sterling will keep sagging because Brexit's path will be stony.  FED MINUTES   Minutes from last month's US Federal Reserve meeting sho... Read More >>

Monday, October 10, 2016

China: Weaker RMB and Disparate Fiscal Policy

In the nearer term, China's monetary policy bodes well for markets. In the longer term, her fiscal policy does not.  Softer  ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Radio Show: Where the IMF is erring

 The IMF just lambasted Central Banks for blocking world growth. We think it's the corrupt politicians who thrive on "Moneyocracy".  Bank... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Why the Fed won't hike next month

   Top three buying themes Water shares (geopolitical: the new "oil") Agricultural (La Nina rears its... Read More >>

Saturday, October 01, 2016

China: Do NOT Buy RMB Bonds

Despite their glitter, is it worth investing in RMB bonds?  Re-weightings In the next year, foreign fund managers intend to do... Read More >>

Friday, September 30, 2016

Radio Show: Why the Fed CANNOT be "independent:"

FED Pressure is mounting on the U.S. Federal Reserve over its independence. At Monday night’s Presidential debate, Donald Trump, accused... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

China's Sixth Plenum: Solidifying Xi's Legacy

Sixth Plenum On Tuesday, 27th September, the Party announced that the sixth Plenum will be held from 24th-26th October, i.e. in just under a mon... Read More >>


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