Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show: USA: Trump and Markets

Trump's infrastructure spending plans are ineffectual. Why you should buy in to the recent bond market sell-off.in America. US Donald Trump... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Bond Yields: Driven by demography

  The longer we work, the more we save by buying bonds, so yields stay structurally low. Age drives savings  Working w... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, October 20, 2016

China: Good GDP and CPI Data

GDP and inflation are encouraging for those wanting to buy the market. THIRD QUARTER GDP ~Economic Time®: Excess supply of money &... Read More >>

Thursday, October 13, 2016

BREXIT: Why sterling will keep sagging

Sterling will keep sagging because Brexit's path will be stony.  FED MINUTES   Minutes from last month's US Federal Reserve meeting sho... Read More >>

Monday, October 10, 2016

China: Weaker RMB and Disparate Fiscal Policy

In the nearer term, China's monetary policy bodes well for markets. In the longer term, her fiscal policy does not.  Softer  ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Radio Show: Where the IMF is erring

 The IMF just lambasted Central Banks for blocking world growth. We think it's the corrupt politicians who thrive on "Moneyocracy".  Bank... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Why the Fed won't hike next month

   Top three buying themes Water shares (geopolitical: the new "oil") Agricultural (La Nina rears its... Read More >>

Saturday, October 01, 2016

China: Do NOT Buy RMB Bonds

Despite their glitter, is it worth investing in RMB bonds?  Re-weightings In the next year, foreign fund managers intend to do... Read More >>

Friday, September 30, 2016

Radio Show: Why the Fed CANNOT be "independent:"

FED Pressure is mounting on the U.S. Federal Reserve over its independence. At Monday night’s Presidential debate, Donald Trump, accused... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

China's Sixth Plenum: Solidifying Xi's Legacy

Sixth Plenum On Tuesday, 27th September, the Party announced that the sixth Plenum will be held from 24th-26th October, i.e. in just under a mon... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Finance: What to be scared of

Don't worry about China's banks; do worry about America's student and car loans! China's banks According to the Bank for Internatio... Read More >>

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Radio Interview: Sell the RMB and Southeast Asian Markets!

Germany is desperate to keep Britain in the EU; PBOC tightens overnight rates massively to defend the RMB, and why you should not touch southeast ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed: Driving with a rear-view mirror

The Fed is working with an anachronistic model. Keep buying China and America. Deja vu For those (younger) market observers shocked... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Monday, August 22, 2016

China: Plenty of room for fiscal stimulus

China's national debt levels are not worrying, so China can reflate happily - and effectively.  Keep buying.    ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Disfigured valuations: you may as well keep buying high yield bonds

  G3 Central Banks have disfigured the market's pricing mechanism to such a degree that talk of "overvaluation" is misplaced: "overvalued" rel... Read More >>

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Bonds: Taper tantrum II, and what to do about it

Why you should buy into any taper tantrum blitz.  Record bond inflows According to  p.13 of this week end's Financial Time... Read More >>

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Global: Low bond yields; China's disparate growth

Low bond yields mean that the ageing population has to save more, so down goes investment. An improved Economic Time in China keeps suggesting a ... Read More >>

Monday, August 08, 2016

China: The myth of a cheaper RMB boosting exports

We never bought the simplistic story that a cheaper currency on its own boosts exports.  Investment implication: don't be fooled!  ... Read More >>

Friday, August 05, 2016

Defence: the start of the East Asian arms race

At a press conference on 4th August, the East Asian arms race was heralded.  The investment implication is obvious. THAAD In e... Read More >>

Friday, August 05, 2016

RTHK Radio Show: Asset Allocation

 Buy Hong Kong - but avoid our banks.  Buy India, but with a view to a quick, liquid exit.   Here are the notes made in preparation... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Monday, August 01, 2016

China: The RMB flunks the safe haven test

On 1st October, the RMB will become the mushiest member of the SDR: it is NOT a safe haven currency, and it will keep depreciating steadily. ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Radio Show: The Fed, the BoJ and PBoC

Investment implications of the newest moves by the Fed and BoJ; why China's shadow banks are less risky than the lenders to SOEs. FED The Fed ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

The Debt Time Bomb: radio show

America's leveraged corporate debt is more dangerous than China's unleveraged domestic debt.  Investment implications. DEBT TIME BOMB Ratin... Read More >>

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Radio Show: Why you must avoid financial stocks

Plenty of Brussels Fudge being made in the company of Merkel and Renzi. Don't "eat" (aka buy) their story: there IS a financial crisis in Europe! ... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

South China Sea: Investment implication

Today we will see how China reacts to an international ruling. Investment implications. The following text cum map  was copied from today/s E... Read More >>

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Radio Show. Brussels fudge: an Italian tax payer bailout

Godiva is launching a new product:" Brussels Fudge". Watch tax payers bail out Italian banks - totally contrary to the new banking directive of ea... Read More >>

Monday, July 04, 2016

Asset Allocation: Brussels fudge and Hong Kong's stale noodles

 Why you should underweight Europe and Hong Kong. 1.  Dominoes falling in Europe - where else might follow? Political as well as r... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Thursday, June 30, 2016

BREXIT Radio Interview: Investment Implications

How will BREXIT drive markets in the third quarter? Any good investment ideas? 1.  What will drive the markets in the third quarter? Turmoil... Read More >>

Thursday, June 23, 2016

BREXIT: investment implications & podcast

Talked to death already, we offer a couple of investment implications. Shouldn't the "BR" stand for Brussels? My position For w... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

How artificially low interest rates distort growth

  Central Bank buying of bonds artificially depresses their yields. Bad for investors relying on market signals!  Low rates hin... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

China: why A-shares will get included in the MSCI

We'll join the herd and predict unoriginally that China's A-Share index directly will be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EMI). T... Read More >>