Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed: Driving with a rear-view mirror

The Fed is working with an anachronistic model. Keep buying China and America. Deja vu For those (younger) market observers shocked... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Monday, August 22, 2016

China: Plenty of room for fiscal stimulus

China's national debt levels are not worrying, so China can reflate happily - and effectively.  Keep buying.    ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Disfigured valuations: you may as well keep buying high yield bonds

  G3 Central Banks have disfigured the market's pricing mechanism to such a degree that talk of "overvaluation" is misplaced: "overvalued" rel... Read More >>

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Bonds: Taper tantrum II, and what to do about it

Why you should buy into any taper tantrum blitz.  Record bond inflows According to  p.13 of this week end's Financial Time... Read More >>

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Global: Low bond yields; China's disparate growth

Low bond yields mean that the ageing population has to save more, so down goes investment. An improved Economic Time in China keeps suggesting a ... Read More >>

Monday, August 08, 2016

China: The myth of a cheaper RMB boosting exports

We never bought the simplistic story that a cheaper currency on its own boosts exports.  Investment implication: don't be fooled!  ... Read More >>

Friday, August 05, 2016

Defence: the start of the East Asian arms race

At a press conference on 4th August, the East Asian arms race was heralded.  The investment implication is obvious. THAAD In e... Read More >>

Friday, August 05, 2016

RTHK Radio Show: Asset Allocation

 Buy Hong Kong - but avoid our banks.  Buy India, but with a view to a quick, liquid exit.   Here are the notes made in preparation... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Monday, August 01, 2016

China: The RMB flunks the safe haven test

On 1st October, the RMB will become the mushiest member of the SDR: it is NOT a safe haven currency, and it will keep depreciating steadily. ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Radio Show: The Fed, the BoJ and PBoC

Investment implications of the newest moves by the Fed and BoJ; why China's shadow banks are less risky than the lenders to SOEs. FED The Fed ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

The Debt Time Bomb: radio show

America's leveraged corporate debt is more dangerous than China's unleveraged domestic debt.  Investment implications. DEBT TIME BOMB Ratin... Read More >>

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Radio Show: Why you must avoid financial stocks

Plenty of Brussels Fudge being made in the company of Merkel and Renzi. Don't "eat" (aka buy) their story: there IS a financial crisis in Europe! ... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

South China Sea: Investment implication

Today we will see how China reacts to an international ruling. Investment implications. The following text cum map  was copied from today/s E... Read More >>

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Radio Show. Brussels fudge: an Italian tax payer bailout

Godiva is launching a new product:" Brussels Fudge". Watch tax payers bail out Italian banks - totally contrary to the new banking directive of ea... Read More >>

Monday, July 04, 2016

Asset Allocation: Brussels fudge and Hong Kong's stale noodles

 Why you should underweight Europe and Hong Kong. 1.  Dominoes falling in Europe - where else might follow? Political as well as r... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Thursday, June 30, 2016

BREXIT Radio Interview: Investment Implications

How will BREXIT drive markets in the third quarter? Any good investment ideas? 1.  What will drive the markets in the third quarter? Turmoil... Read More >>

Thursday, June 23, 2016

BREXIT: investment implications & podcast

Talked to death already, we offer a couple of investment implications. Shouldn't the "BR" stand for Brussels? My position For w... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

How artificially low interest rates distort growth

  Central Bank buying of bonds artificially depresses their yields. Bad for investors relying on market signals!  Low rates hin... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

China: why A-shares will get included in the MSCI

We'll join the herd and predict unoriginally that China's A-Share index directly will be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EMI). T... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Friday, June 03, 2016

China: Changed risk parameters

Contrary to Deng Xiaoping, Pres.  Xi Jinping is putting foreign policy and politics ahead of economics. Investment implications.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, June 02, 2016

US, China, Japan & Viet Nam

Buy America and Viet Nam; sell China, Hong Kong and Japan  US ECONOMIC DATA US manufacturing has expanded for the third consecutive month... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

RMB: Why it must fall further

A weaker RMB is part of China's newer policy. Don't load up.  Financial Times (FT) The front page of today's FT was festooned ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Currencies, the US stock market, & Greece

A rising US stock market will keep propelling the dollar; the opposite holds true for the RMB. US DOLLAR The surging US dollar is having ripples ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Zhang Dejiang in HK; Fed thinking

ZHANG DEJIANG In his keynote speech yesterday at the Belt and Road Summit, National People’s Congress chairman Zhang Dejiang identified ... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Why Keynes works in China and why HK's market keeps going to pot

RTHK Radio show notes on why Keynes works in China and why HK's market keeps going to pot. China infrastructure spending China's M... Read More >>

Friday, May 06, 2016

2016-2035: U.S. real stock & bond returns

What will U.S. stocks and bonds return over the next 20 years?  Source Just this May, i.e. now , McKinsey and Company released ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 05, 2016

Gold: seven reasons to buy

Gold is always good to have as portfolio insurance, but why buy now? Seven reasons.  Irresponsible politicians &  central ... Read More >>

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Central Banks: policy contradictions

What both banks pretend to be targeting in terms of inflation is contradicted by their actions. Investment implications.  Inflation... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Economic Clock: where are we in the cycle?

We reveal what our Economic Clock is telling us - and, thus, how to invest. The Economic Clock Readers know that we have been runnin... Read More >>

Friday, April 15, 2016

Defence: Djibouti's importance

China is going to post 10,000 soldiers there by the end of 2017. Investment implication. Geography About the size of Wales, Djibouti... Read More >>

Thursday, April 07, 2016

Radio Interview: Fed, China & Hong Kong

  The Floundering OMC; stabilising China and rotting Hong Kong  FED MINUTES The minutes of the US Federal Reserve Bank’s Marc... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 05, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Emerging markets; Fed; China; Japan

Buy Emerging Markets; the floundering Fed; China's policy dilemma  & why to buy Japan  Emerging markets Go overwe... Read More >>

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