Saturday, February 06, 2016

RMB & HKD: Chinese New Year attacks

This coming Monday - Wednesday, 8th -10th February, expect the RMB and HKD to be attacked. Chinese New Year Being a lunar festival, ... Read More >>

Monday, February 01, 2016

Radio Interview: Flawed Japanese monetary policy

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is doing more of the same - yet hoping for a different result? Is this crazy or just plain sick?  Crazy investment im... Read More >>

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Radio notes: of turnover addiction; circuit breakers and normal market turbulence

Market turbulence is goaded by profit-driven banks; Ominously, Hong Kong wants to introduce market circuit breakers this June... MARKETS DRIVEN B... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

RMB and HK$: The Muddle East

Both governments can thank only themselves for speculative attacks. Investment implication. Muddle East So much for the much-touted ... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Radio interview: Market Crash/ Fed/Oil

There is more to the market crash than China's slowdown.  Investment implications. Market crash: is it the slowdown in China or is that just... Read More >>

Friday, January 15, 2016

Hong Kong/China: a political "sell"

Received wisdom is that Pres. Xi Jinping is a hard liner.  What his centralisation means for market regulation and Hong Kong.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Hong Kong: Circuit breakers in June

We all know what havoc China's recent circuit breakers wreaked.  Expect the same for  Hong Kong this June. Investment implication. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China: Why the RMB must fall by at least 10%

The Central Bank is caught in a policy dilemma. It will opt for growth, hence a mushier RMB.   Worse Economic Time® In our ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 09, 2016

China: Worse Economic Time

Currency support worsens China's Economic Time®. Avoid this market for a year.   Monetary economy  convulsions Accordi... Read More >>

Thursday, January 07, 2016

RTHK: China & America markets

Chinese and American economic data are tenuous. Investment implications.  CHINA PMI New economic data shows that the services sector in C... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

RMB: why a basket case?

On 11th December, Beijing decided to run the RMB against a basket of currencies. Backgrounder and investment implication. Reminders ... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

RTHK Radio: Europe and seven investment themes

Why you should short the Euro. Seven investment themes, some odd ones, for 2016. 1. The Euro and the European Union For the EU headline the Finla... Read More >>

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Military: tensions in the China Sea

Sabre-rattling out here is getting noisier. What to do about it. Chinese war games This week, China's military conducted war games ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

China flirts with the supply side

Next to its Keynesian policies to create demand, Beijing wants to create a business-friendlier supply-side environment. Investment implications. &... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

The RMB and the Fed

The RMB is an insignificant currency on the world stage.  The Fed has been tightening for some time already. Investment implications.   T... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

RMB: Why it won't "internationalise"

Much has been made of the "internationalisation" of the RMB. now that it is part of the SDR basket. We think that tighter controls are looming. ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 19, 2015

FOMC & Chinese Housing Data: Radio interview

The FOMC is a camel designed by committee, and China's housing starts suggest a delicate improvement in the nation's Economic Time. investment imp... Read More >>

Saturday, November 14, 2015

RMB: a secondary SDR member by 30/11/15

What happens if the RMB is included in the SDR basket by the end of November? Investment implications? We all know that the IMF 's main  boar... Read More >>

Thursday, November 12, 2015

China & the EU: RTHK Radio Show Notes

Here are my speaker's notes for this morning's radio show SINGLES DAY Mainland China’s Singles Day, the world’s biggest shoppi... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

China: interest rates cut - but NOT liberalized!

On Friday, 23rd October, China announced rate cuts as well as "liberalization". We dispute the latter. That raises investment implications.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

El Nino in full swing: eight longs and three shorts

El Nino is peaking this month. What sectors to go long and short of.  Typhoon season in the East This is truly the season of ty... Read More >>

Monday, November 09, 2015

Fed policy: two longs and three shorts

Which bonds to buy if rates rise? Fed leadership vacuum Just last week we railed against Dr. Yellen: we just don't know what this tw... Read More >>

Friday, November 06, 2015

Yellen: worn out her welcome

Yellen is not leading the Fed, so higher volatility is the upshot. "Live possibility" When Dr Yellen stated yesterday that there is ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 29, 2015

The Fed: Worshiping Janus

Dr Yellen is just not in charge of the Fed! We don't know what data they are looking at anymore. Janus He is God of the Doorway, a... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

China & USA: non-mainstream thoughts & investment ideas

China: Surprising noises at the Plenum and at sea .              USA: ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Radio Show Notes: Structural forces in China and America

Deflation is a symptom, not a cause!  How to invest. in structural swamps. China We all know of those weak September inflatio... Read More >>

Thursday, October 08, 2015

IMF's, Japan's & USA's losses of market credibility: RTHK Radio Show

The irrelevance of the IMF markets; the loss of market credibility of the Fed and Bank of Japan   IMF's recent irrelevancies "IM... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Abenomics: Chasing elephants with three pop guns

The Japanese ocean liner keeps sinking in the mire of vested interests; new "arrows" are blunt Gross depressed product A couple of w... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Friday, September 25, 2015

Automated trading reduces markets' predictiveness

Enzio von Pfeil discusses why automated trading reduces markets' predictiveness on this RTHK podcast. Enjoy! Read More >>

Friday, September 18, 2015

USA: the Fed and the Economic Time

Why buy the markets of America, China, Japan and Europe? Why we were wrong We focused on different numbers than the Fed has. We foc... Read More >>

Sunday, September 06, 2015

China: Buy on weakness

Buy China on weakness: you can have slower growth AND a stronger stock market after all! Old advice  We have been recommending... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

China: Bloomberg TV interview

Readers know why we have contrarian bets on China. Here is this morning's Bloomberg TV interview on said subject, in which I delve deeper into pol... Read More >>

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