Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Stronger dollar heralds debt crises

Stronger dollar heralds debt crises  Since December we have been warning that the stronger dollar will hurt emerging markets. How? ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Fed will hike rates in September

The Fed meeting confirms our views of an improving Economic Time in America - but expect the face of inflation to have a different complexion.&nbs... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

When the US rate hike? Three pointers

When will the Fed hike rates? Three things to watch out for. IF ... unemployment dips below 5.3% AND IF consumer price in... Read More >>

Monday, July 27, 2015

China: Mystery mayhem

Nobody convincingly can explain today's market plunge. Perhaps margin calls lurking in the jungles of shadow banking? Government to blame.&nbs... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Where are China's markets as well as steel consumption headed? For how long?

Where are China's markets as well as steel consumption headed? For how long? Here is the clip of the July 15th radio show which Enzio von... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Greece is winning the game of chicken, so buy into weakness

More of the same? All politics are domestic, as Tip O'Neil observed so brilliantly so many years ago. Tsipras has eroded is domestic pol... Read More >>

Friday, July 10, 2015

China and Europe are on sale: load-up!

Chinese caving-in The market upturn was predictable; expect more Central Bank easing. Europeans caving-in Tsipras is w... Read More >>

Thursday, July 02, 2015

China: Buying opportunity within 6 days

Buy in to the China markets over the next six working days, i.e. until 10th July. This  burst bubble ,too, shall pass and you may miss the boa... Read More >>

Monday, June 29, 2015

China: MSCI inclusion on hold

China will be included in the MSCI, just not until they have more governance issues sorted.  Keep buying on weakness. Here is the clip of a... Read More >>

Sunday, June 28, 2015

China: Why buy into market weakness?

Everyone knows that the Chinese markets took an 8%  pummeling last week, especially on Friday. Why we think that this represents a buyi... Read More >>

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Drachma Drama: Buying opportunity

Even if Tsipras probably will be ousted  as of 5th July, the Greeks have won the game of chicken: Europeans are so desperate to keep them in t... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Drachma drama: The Trojan horse wins this game of chicken

The Europeans are desperate to keep Greece.  Why so? My radio show today.    http://programme.rthk.hk/channel/radio/pr... Read More >>

Sunday, June 21, 2015

China: Why the RMB must soften

We remain  fundamental China optimists. However, with the introduction of QDII2 this year, expect the RMB to soften: good news for exporters. ... Read More >>

Friday, June 19, 2015

China: Let's TWIST again

China wants more of its easy money going in to loans. Here is how, and what that means for investing.   Double-barreled strategy.  T... Read More >>

Thursday, June 18, 2015

El Nino strikes: which sectors?

This El Nino will be on par with 1997's muscular one. What sectors to go short and long of. Weather According to the Financial Times (FT) o... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Friday, June 12, 2015

China: A-share limbo

Why the inclusion of China's A-shares in the MSCI is in limbo - and what to do about it. Current state.  Already, China accounts for 25.3... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Friday, June 05, 2015

Radio Show: The Fed is tightenig already!

The Fed has been tightening for some months by virtue of stopping QE; why Greece is winning the game of chicken, and where to put your money http:/... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Friday, May 29, 2015

China/Hong Kong: buying opportunity

Three reasons why yesterday's China/Hong Kong market cracks represent excellent buying opportunities. What happened.  According to today'... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Podcast: China's shadow banking; quo vadis gold?

I ask experts whether China will implode like Japan, or explode like Lehman.  I also ask what drives the gold price so that we might know wher... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Hong Kong/China: two lucrative Schemes

The Mutual Recognition Scheme , coupled with the  Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme , will  earn you lots of mo... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

China: a profitable June looms

This June, both the MSCI and probably the IMF will announce inclusion of China in their respective  baskets. Keep buying. Promising signs... Read More >>

Friday, May 08, 2015

Greece: she wins game of chicken by 29/5

"GR" in Grexit should stand  for "Good Riddance". Yet another roadmap to oblivion. The Greeks keep winning this game of chicken!   T... Read More >>

Saturday, May 02, 2015

China: More goodies

Another rate cut will be dwarfed by markets' discounting next year's inclusion of China's A-Shares in the MSCI Index China's Economic Ti... Read More >>

Thursday, April 30, 2015

The Economic Clock: China & America

Keep buying both, but overweight China  & Hong Kong. Sector ideas follow. Refreshing the Economic Clock®.  This is designed ... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Hong Kong/China & oil: today's radio show

Why you must buy China and Hong Kong stocks - and why you must short oil.     Have a listen at http://programme.rthk.hk/channel/radi... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Roadmaps: Grexit and a crash this Fall

Here is how much Greece must pay whom and by when, followed by an overall roadmap for that market tumble this Fall. Greece's  payment de... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 21, 2015

No Grexit: by the recalcitrant child

 Some more on Athens-fried chicken: why there won't be a Grexit, and why the child remains recalcitrant Cooped-up chickens.  Just a ... Read More >>

Thursday, April 16, 2015

China: today's per cent beats 1990's 26x!

Forget the tooth-gnashing about a growth slowdown: China is 26x larger than in 1990!  Base effect means that one per cent is not one perc... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Grexit: game of chicken or Good Riddance?

    Greece prepares to declare default.  What might this mean for markets? Game, set, match. Perhaps presciently on 1s... Read More >>

Saturday, April 11, 2015

China's Markets: Four-barrelled good news

Four imminent policy changes will proper China's markets even higher: rate and reserve cuts & two quota increases Economic Time® the t... Read More >>

Friday, April 10, 2015

China's Markets: Economic Time set to improve

Why we remain optimistic on China's markets: improving Economic Time® and RMB set to join the SDR  No telling the time by looking at ... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Grexit: potential dangers thereof

Whilst we do not foresee Grexit, it's best to beware of its consequences Game of chicken. This February we wrote that this whole Grexit m... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Europe & Japan: Overweight

Just go with the flow and buy these two markets: liquidity-driven upside whilst politicians kick the empty & noisy can of reforms down the road... Read More >>

Friday, March 27, 2015

Singapore: Lee Kwan Yew and Otto von Bismarck

Geopolitical parallels between Lee Kwan Yew's and Otto von Bismark's deaths are far-reaching Last posting.  In my last blog I suggested that&n... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Bloomberg TV Show: Singapore, the dollar and China

My Bloomberg TV show of this morning on Singapore's looming issues, the rising dollar and healing China http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-0... Read More >>

Monday, March 23, 2015

Lee Kuan Yew's death: the Ides of March are upon us

       Lee Kuan Yew's death usurps Southeast Asia's more than commonly thought. Down goes the currency... Read More >>

Friday, March 20, 2015

FOMC: Connecting the dots

Forget demand-driven inflation; worry about debt inflation in the Submerging Markets Dot plots. We won't bother re-phrasing the Financial Time... Read More >>