Wednesday, November 11, 2015

China: interest rates cut - but NOT liberalized!

On Friday, 23rd October, China announced rate cuts as well as "liberalization". We dispute the latter. That raises investment implications.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, November 10, 2015

El Nino in full swing: eight longs and three shorts

El Nino is peaking this month. What sectors to go long and short of.  Typhoon season in the East This is truly the season of ty... Read More >>

Monday, November 09, 2015

Fed policy: two longs and three shorts

Which bonds to buy if rates rise? Fed leadership vacuum Just last week we railed against Dr. Yellen: we just don't know what this tw... Read More >>

Friday, November 06, 2015

Yellen: worn out her welcome

Yellen is not leading the Fed, so higher volatility is the upshot. "Live possibility" When Dr Yellen stated yesterday that there is ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 29, 2015

The Fed: Worshiping Janus

Dr Yellen is just not in charge of the Fed! We don't know what data they are looking at anymore. Janus He is God of the Doorway, a... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

China & USA: non-mainstream thoughts & investment ideas

China: Surprising noises at the Plenum and at sea .              USA: ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Radio Show Notes: Structural forces in China and America

Deflation is a symptom, not a cause!  How to invest. in structural swamps. China We all know of those weak September inflatio... Read More >>

Thursday, October 08, 2015

IMF's, Japan's & USA's losses of market credibility: RTHK Radio Show

The irrelevance of the IMF markets; the loss of market credibility of the Fed and Bank of Japan   IMF's recent irrelevancies "IM... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Abenomics: Chasing elephants with three pop guns

The Japanese ocean liner keeps sinking in the mire of vested interests; new "arrows" are blunt Gross depressed product A couple of w... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Friday, September 25, 2015

Automated trading reduces markets' predictiveness

Enzio von Pfeil discusses why automated trading reduces markets' predictiveness on this RTHK podcast. Enjoy! Read More >>

Friday, September 18, 2015

USA: the Fed and the Economic Time

Why buy the markets of America, China, Japan and Europe? Why we were wrong We focused on different numbers than the Fed has. We foc... Read More >>

Sunday, September 06, 2015

China: Buy on weakness

Buy China on weakness: you can have slower growth AND a stronger stock market after all! Old advice  We have been recommending... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

China: Bloomberg TV interview

Readers know why we have contrarian bets on China. Here is this morning's Bloomberg TV interview on said subject, in which I delve deeper into pol... Read More >>

Monday, August 31, 2015

China: Buy weakness

The market remains  mesmerized by yesterday's news.  So everyone is selling. Why you should defy the herd.  Pop... Read More >>

Thursday, August 27, 2015

It's always windy ahead of a weather change!

Here are more thoughts on what really is behind all of this market volatility: it's always windy ahead of a weather change! The Econom... Read More >>

Monday, August 24, 2015

China: (At least) five Renminbi positives

China: (At least) five Renminbi positives The end of the world is NOT nigh just because the RMB skidded briefly by under two per cent last Tuesday... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece and Germany: Profitable paradox

Greece and Germany: Profitable  paradox In each case, the  conservatives are playing OPPOSITE roles. How to profit off this bifurcation... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Push for reforms, consumption, productivity growth key to Asia’s future

Enzio von Pfeil is interviewed by The Edge Singapore and outlines why the push for reforms, consumption and productivity growth are key to Asia&r... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Japan: Gross Depressed Product

Japan: Gross Depressed Product Monetary easing is as ineffectual to reforming Japan's economy as bombing ISIS is to eradicating terrorism. Abe&rs... Read More >>

Sunday, August 16, 2015

China: No influence on Fed actions

The press and markets over-rate China’s ability to export deflation – and thus to influence Fed policy. 1.   Much ado ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Infighting in Beijing

There is lots of infighting in Beijing about how to control the economy: just who's in charge, anyway? Here are some wars that will result. Like... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

China: the Beach Boys at Beidaihe

China: the Beach Boys at Beidaihe Nobody knows what the beach boys are discussing at Beidaihe. Here are some market-relevant stabs in the dark.... Read More >>

Friday, August 07, 2015

Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September

Here is the recording of today's radio interview: Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September Better US Economic Time.... Read More >>

Tuesday, August 04, 2015

Stronger dollar heralds debt crises

Stronger dollar heralds debt crises  Since December we have been warning that the stronger dollar will hurt emerging markets. How? ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Fed will hike rates in September

The Fed meeting confirms our views of an improving Economic Time in America - but expect the face of inflation to have a different complexion.&nbs... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

When the US rate hike? Three pointers

When will the Fed hike rates? Three things to watch out for. IF ... unemployment dips below 5.3% AND IF consumer price in... Read More >>

Monday, July 27, 2015

China: Mystery mayhem

Nobody convincingly can explain today's market plunge. Perhaps margin calls lurking in the jungles of shadow banking? Government to blame.&nbs... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Where are China's markets as well as steel consumption headed? For how long?

Where are China's markets as well as steel consumption headed? For how long? Here is the clip of the July 15th radio show which Enzio von... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Greece is winning the game of chicken, so buy into weakness

More of the same? All politics are domestic, as Tip O'Neil observed so brilliantly so many years ago. Tsipras has eroded is domestic pol... Read More >>

Friday, July 10, 2015

China and Europe are on sale: load-up!

Chinese caving-in The market upturn was predictable; expect more Central Bank easing. Europeans caving-in Tsipras is w... Read More >>

Thursday, July 02, 2015

China: Buying opportunity within 6 days

Buy in to the China markets over the next six working days, i.e. until 10th July. This  burst bubble ,too, shall pass and you may miss the boa... Read More >>

Monday, June 29, 2015

China: MSCI inclusion on hold

China will be included in the MSCI, just not until they have more governance issues sorted.  Keep buying on weakness. Here is the clip of a... Read More >>

Sunday, June 28, 2015

China: Why buy into market weakness?

Everyone knows that the Chinese markets took an 8%  pummeling last week, especially on Friday. Why we think that this represents a buyi... Read More >>

Thursday, June 25, 2015

Drachma Drama: Buying opportunity

Even if Tsipras probably will be ousted  as of 5th July, the Greeks have won the game of chicken: Europeans are so desperate to keep them in t... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 23, 2015

Drachma drama: The Trojan horse wins this game of chicken

The Europeans are desperate to keep Greece.  Why so? My radio show today. Read More >>

Sunday, June 21, 2015

China: Why the RMB must soften

We remain  fundamental China optimists. However, with the introduction of QDII2 this year, expect the RMB to soften: good news for exporters. ... Read More >>

Friday, June 19, 2015

China: Let's TWIST again

China wants more of its easy money going in to loans. Here is how, and what that means for investing.   Double-barreled strategy.  T... Read More >>


The information, including but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material contained on this blog are for informational purposes only and do not necessarily reflect the views or Enzio von Pfeil. The purpose of this blog is to promote broader understanding, knowledge and awareness of various financial and economic topics. It is not intended to be a substitute for regulated professional investment advice. Always seek the advice of your a regulated investment advisor with any questions you may have regarding your specific investment needs or concerns.

Enzio von Pfeil does not recommend or endorse any strategies or ideas mentioned in this blog. Reliance on any information appearing in this blog is solely at your own risk.


Any information provided to you by us, including any promotional material such as photographs, written descriptions, any plans or models, any income estimates or projections (“Information”) have been provided to us by other sources and although we aim to perform due diligence on all information we provide to our Blog subscribers, the Information is provided for general purposes only, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the Information and we do not make any representations, either express or implied, as to the accuracy as to the Information. We recommend that our Blog subscribers undertake their own due diligence in relation to the asset they are considering purchasing, including seeking independent legal and financial advice in relation to their own financial objectives and personal circumstances, prior to signing any agreement or contract with any third parties.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy, likelihood of achievement or reasonableness of any figures, forecasts, prospects or returns (if any) contained in the message. Such figures, forecasts, prospects or returns are by their nature subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. The assumptions and parameters used by ( are not the only ones that might reasonably have been selected and therefore does not guarantee the sequence, accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information provided herein. None of, its members or any of their employees or directors shall be held liable, in any way, for any claims, mistakes, errors or otherwise arising out of or in connection with the content of any form of communication, documentation included in the Blog, via e-mail or any other form of communication.

You are reminded that the content is for personal use and general information only. Under no circumstances is the content intended for and hence the content should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation or recommendation to dispose/sell, an offer or solicitation or recommendation to subscribe in, nor an offer or solicitation or recommendation to buy/acquire and under no circumstances should the content be constituted as provision of any recommendation or investment advice on any securities, investment products, investment arrangements and any other form of investments or legal, tax or other professional advice and therefore should not be relied upon in that regard for making any decision. Unless specifically stated, neither the information nor any opinion contained herein constitutes as an advertisement, an invitation, a solicitation, a recommendation or advice to buy or sell any products, services, securities, futures, options, other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service by

Unless stated otherwise, any opinions or views expressed in this communication may not represent those of Opinions or views expressed in this communication may differ from those of other departments or third parties, including any opinions or views expressed in any research issued by

Any e-mail and any accompanying attachments are not encrypted and cannot be guaranteed to be secure, complete or error-free as electronic communications may be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, delayed or incomplete, and/or may contain viruses., therefore, does not accept any liability for any interception, corruption, loss, destruction, incompleteness, viruses, errors, omissions or delays in relation to this electronic communication. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version. Electronic communications carried within the system may be monitored. Any communication or message in email form or otherwise may contain confidential information. Any use, dissemination, distribution or reproduction of the relevant information outside the original recipients of any messages  is strictly prohibited. If you receive a message by mistake, please notify the sender by reply email immediately and permanently delete the emails and its contents. Unless otherwise stated, any communication provided is solely for information purposes only.