Monday, May 05, 2014

Why China must ease soon: shadow loans eclipsed by dark pools

Slowdown fomenting unrest.  Just last week we posted a blog(see item 2, "China slowdown, credit risks" on how China's economic slowd... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Where to invest: US, China, Japan & Defense

1. Fed meeting, US economy, forward guidance etc a. Keynes cannot work in post-democracies: locals don’t want to build roads and bridges! b... Read More >>

Thursday, April 24, 2014

Bond yields: but the sick man IS (southern) Europe!

Adieu, business cycle.  On 29th March 2014,  we penned blog on just how Europe as voted herself out of a business cycle. No amo... Read More >>

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Zhou, Draghi ! A Riddle of Greece vs China

 Oddity. It cannot have escaped the attention of alert readers that while the Greek government bond was over-subscribed, the Chinese gove... Read More >>

Thursday, April 10, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: Indian Rupee vs Chinese Renminbi

Welfare democracies are out. Just yesterday we suggested that according to our Economic Clock, the dollar is the currency of choice when it co... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: G3 Currencies

Recently we posited that the reason for market undulations is very much because the G-3's members , are undergoing changes in their respective Econ... Read More >>

Thursday, April 03, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says

I am giving a speech to the Young President's Organisation here in Hong Kong, so I thought that this part on how the Economic Clock works and can h... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Investment strategy going in to quarter II 2014

 I have compiled this for my show on Bloomberg tomorrow, Wednesday, 2nd April, at 11:40 AM Hong Kong time     Asia-Pacific... Read More >>

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Europe has voted itself out of a business cycle

Rocketing prices.  On 15th and 21st March we suggested the myth of deflation. If anything, cost-push inflation is alive and kicking. ... Read More >>

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Worsening Economic Time

1. Recently we pontificated about China's state-owned banks, arguing that once  they do get exposed to the cutting winds of competition, ... Read More >>

Friday, March 21, 2014

What's good about Fed policies

 Markets' nose-dive. As we all know, markets nose-dived yesterday because Pres. Yellen said that labour markets would tighten sooner than... Read More >>

Friday, March 21, 2014

The fallacy of deflation - II

In point 4 our recent note on the fallacy of deflation, we argued that  markets may be staring in the wrong direction. Whilst it ... Read More >>

Sunday, March 16, 2014

Chinese banks: releasing your house cat in to the jungle

 Alarms.  Not so long ago, we witnessed a double-header of "firsts" in China: a) a bond issued by Chaori Solar Energy Science & ... Read More >>

Saturday, March 15, 2014

The fallacy of deflation

Nothing much to write about this.    "Inflation is dead". Oh really? Then how come food prices are going through the roof? How come ... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 12, 2014

Random Thoughts: The RMB and Gold

No need to tell you that the RMB has skidded by 1.4 per cent within the past  nine days (t0 RMB 1.61/dollar), a level not seen since this summ... Read More >>

Saturday, March 08, 2014

Why worry about Ukraine?

Next to the simplistic view that sensationalism sells, just why is the press devoting so much coverage to Russia's invasion of parts of Ukraine?&nb... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 05, 2014

In Gold We Trust

Here is what  I have drafted for tomorrow's show on Bloomberg TV at 11:40 AM.  As usual, I bank on your intelligence, thus providing... Read More >>

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

The Economic Clock: Which sector?

By far, our most popular piece has been our most fundamental one: what the Economic Clock® is, and how to tell the Economic Time® with it w... Read More >>

Monday, February 10, 2014

What the Economic Clock says about America

A good half year ago, I penned the following: "The last two big re-sets (tightenings) in America's Economic Clock® were announced on 4th Februa... Read More >>

Monday, January 27, 2014

Trash Crash: yes. Chinese banking earthquake: no!

I need not tell you what is happening in the markets. My guess is that just about any news is bad news, except for that ICBC morning ray of light. ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 25, 2014

Trash Crash IV: China's bank earthquake this Friday, 31st January

Today's newspaper are splattered with  panic regarding the currencies of  emerging markets, and disquiet because of the sh... Read More >>

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Why deflation matters

No points for originality, but I thought this op ed in this week end's Financial Times, p. 8, useful: "  Deflation carries two equally signifi... Read More >>

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Trash Crash (III): Is there really "shadow banking" as opposed to "regulated" banking?

Readers know that many are worried about a "trash crash" which could have one of a variety of triggers. But just which trip wire in the murky world... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

The Smells of Europe's Death Knells: high taxes and high rates

Readers know of my skepticism of that "one size fits all" Euro. I am not sure at all that this Euro has helped German exporters, for instance. What... Read More >>

Monday, January 13, 2014

Trash Crash II: Those marvellous men in their flying machines

Just last week we warned of a "trash crash" - a lightning bolt out of the blue, one that demolishes the markets febrile, yet complacent market opti... Read More >>

Monday, January 06, 2014

2014: Of financial drones, the trash crash and investment opportunities

Apologies for dithering so long, but I had to find out how to post blogs on our new webmaster's page. In a nutshell, 2014 will be characterised by ... Read More >>

Monday, September 23, 2013

Germany’s Deathly Dance

These controversial thoughts are not ones that you will find in any mainstream press! They certainly are unpopular with my German friends, but I am... Read More >>

Monday, June 24, 2013

Changing Economic Time®: So, how do I invest now?

How to invest now? We provide strategic (i.e. NOT "timing"/ "tactical" ) asset allocation thoughts concerning which instruments, markets, sectors, ... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Japan: Morbidnomics

Here are the notes that I created for my Bloomberg "Asia Edge" TV show yesterday, 11th June, at 11:40 AM here in Hong Kong:  1. The BOJ will a... Read More >>

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Bernanke & The Economic Clock

You all know what happened: just before releasing the minutes of the  last FOMC meeting, Prof. Bernanke spoke to the Joint Economic Committee ... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

China, Japan & Europe: Strategic "Avoids"

Tomorrow I will be on Bloomberg TV at 11:40 AM Hong Kong time.  Here are some thoughts that I will share  on the three subjects highlight... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 24, 2013

China's banks: explosion, implosion or erosion?

Must  Europe's many banking crises ultimately infect China's banks, creating a global  financial pandemic?  After all, a c... Read More >>

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Japan: "This time is different"

On 9th April we released a  scathing piece just  why the Bank of Japan's  (BoJ's) easy money cannot ignite growth: "...Kuroda's... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Gold: Keep your insurance policy!

In our  previous blog on gold, "In gold we trust" (6th December 2012), I obviously could  not foresee Monday's plunge... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 09, 2013

Japan: Quantitative easing means zero "trickle-down", aka no "double happiness"

If you read the Financial Times, don't bother with  my musings: I have leaned heavily on  today's FT. Yesterday, we posted "Jap... Read More >>

Monday, April 08, 2013

Japan & Portugal: one mean denominator

As you know, two major economic events occurred last week.  We will not repeat the minutiae of each event, instead focusing on their investmen... Read More >>

Monday, March 25, 2013

Cyprus: Nirvana or false dawn? This marriage is worsening

We needn't review the package agreed to in Brussels. You have that already. This "deal" and market exhuberance probably is just  another false... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Cyprus: Just a bad marriage or insidious family violence?

Back on 7th February I penned:   "Regardless of what ECB Boss Draghi says today: he only can provide a fig leaf behind which these politi... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

China: how to invest during stagflation

No doubt you all have read about China's more recent data that has disappointed the market: Industrial production rose "only" 9.9% in the firs... Read More >>

Thursday, March 07, 2013

Sequestration Dining

Pres. Obama finally is coming around to the notion that he actually  has to talk with his foes in Congress - instead of just going above every... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Collateral transformation: Wall Street's newest hoax

Etymologically, "hoax" is derived from "hocus-pocus". It, in turn, has some roots in the name ascribed to magicians and jugglers in ... Read More >>

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Europe: Don’t believe the illusion!

Readers know that I am particularly bearish on Europe, having lived in that beautiful museum for 20 years. Problem is that instead of being full of... Read More >>

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