Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

China and Hong Kong: Why you should sell

 The global Economic Time® is worsening in China and Hong Kong: sell in December and go away. CHINA China is seeking a World Trade Orga... Read More >>

Thursday, October 20, 2016

China: Good GDP and CPI Data

GDP and inflation are encouraging for those wanting to buy the market. THIRD QUARTER GDP ~Economic Time®: Excess supply of money &... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Monday, August 22, 2016

China: Plenty of room for fiscal stimulus

China's national debt levels are not worrying, so China can reflate happily - and effectively.  Keep buying.    ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

China: why A-shares will get included in the MSCI

We'll join the herd and predict unoriginally that China's A-Share index directly will be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EMI). T... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

RMB: Why it must fall further

A weaker RMB is part of China's newer policy. Don't load up.  Financial Times (FT) The front page of today's FT was festooned ... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: Potential policy blunders

Collateralized debt obligations and Keynesian fiscal expansion are dangerous and misguided. Investment implications. "The Big Short" ... Read More >>

Sunday, March 06, 2016

China: five key policy issues

What are the five key issues demanding discussion at the National People's Congress? Change in leadership style The South China Mor... Read More >>

Thursday, March 03, 2016

China, America: Radio interview

China's downgrade by Moody's. Trumponomics exacerbates China-US relations. Investment implications.  China's downgrade Ye... Read More >>

Friday, January 15, 2016

Hong Kong/China: a political "sell"

Received wisdom is that Pres. Xi Jinping is a hard liner.  What his centralisation means for market regulation and Hong Kong.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China: Why the RMB must fall by at least 10%

The Central Bank is caught in a policy dilemma. It will opt for growth, hence a mushier RMB.   Worse Economic Time® In our ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 09, 2016

China: Worse Economic Time

Currency support worsens China's Economic Time®. Avoid this market for a year.   Monetary economy  convulsions Accordi... Read More >>

Thursday, January 07, 2016

RTHK: China & America markets

Chinese and American economic data are tenuous. Investment implications.  CHINA PMI New economic data shows that the services sector in C... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

RMB: why a basket case?

On 11th December, Beijing decided to run the RMB against a basket of currencies. Backgrounder and investment implication. Reminders ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

RMB: Why it won't "internationalise"

Much has been made of the "internationalisation" of the RMB. now that it is part of the SDR basket. We think that tighter controls are looming. ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Saturday, November 14, 2015

RMB: a secondary SDR member by 30/11/15

What happens if the RMB is included in the SDR basket by the end of November? Investment implications? We all know that the IMF 's main  boar... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

China: Bloomberg TV interview

Readers know why we have contrarian bets on China. Here is this morning's Bloomberg TV interview on said subject, in which I delve deeper into pol... Read More >>

Monday, August 31, 2015

China: Buy weakness

The market remains  mesmerized by yesterday's news.  So everyone is selling. Why you should defy the herd.  Pop... Read More >>

Friday, July 10, 2015

China and Europe are on sale: load-up!

Chinese caving-in The market upturn was predictable; expect more Central Bank easing. Europeans caving-in Tsipras is w... Read More >>

Thursday, July 02, 2015

China: Buying opportunity within 6 days

Buy in to the China markets over the next six working days, i.e. until 10th July. This  burst bubble ,too, shall pass and you may miss the boa... Read More >>

Sunday, June 28, 2015

China: Why buy into market weakness?

Everyone knows that the Chinese markets took an 8%  pummeling last week, especially on Friday. Why we think that this represents a buyi... Read More >>

Sunday, June 21, 2015

China: Why the RMB must soften

We remain  fundamental China optimists. However, with the introduction of QDII2 this year, expect the RMB to soften: good news for exporters. ... Read More >>

Friday, June 12, 2015

China: A-share limbo

Why the inclusion of China's A-shares in the MSCI is in limbo - and what to do about it. Current state.  Already, China accounts for 25.3... Read More >>

Friday, May 29, 2015

China/Hong Kong: buying opportunity

Three reasons why yesterday's China/Hong Kong market cracks represent excellent buying opportunities. What happened.  According to today'... Read More >>