Thursday, March 15, 2018

USD Yield Curve: why it must flatten & what to do about it

The yield curve must flatten once investors move into a 22nd-century inflation mind set. What to do about a flatter yield curve What are the p... Read More >>

Thursday, February 22, 2018

FOMC Outlook: a contrarian's view

Inflation fears are unfounded in facts; thus, bond yields will decline. Expect the Euro to tumble as of 4th March. 1.  FOMC Minutes.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Economic Time: sneak attack from the REAL economy

America's and the global Economic Time is worsening - but not for the reason that you may think. Profits implications. Supranationals' 20/20... Read More >>

Thursday, February 08, 2018

RTHK3 Radio Show Notes: Amazon customers are more powerful than union members!

"If you don't like change, you will like irrelevance even less.".  Well, things have changed. For instance, retailing vs union members. Shoppe... Read More >>

Monday, February 05, 2018

RTHK3 Radio Notes: Kaiser Trump's "State of the Disarray" Speech

Some acerbic remarks re Kaiser Trump's State of the Disarray speech. 1.  State of the Union – or State of Disarray?[1] a.&... Read More >>

Monday, January 29, 2018

Attack? What tomorrow's Treasury Report may imply

Kaiser Trump may want to play with his toys and cast himself as a "war time President" in the run up to his own Mueller mess and 6th November Senat... Read More >>

Sunday, January 28, 2018

RTHK 3 Radio Show Notes: no inflation, so a flatter yield curve

With wage-push (demand -pull) inflation virtually dead, there is NO bond bear market. So do NOT buy banks! Protectionism vs globalisation at D... Read More >>

Saturday, January 20, 2018

The Fed: new triumviate's bullying problem

What follows is brief discussion of the upcoming triumvirate at the U.S. Fed. Significance.  Within the next three to six mont... Read More >>

Saturday, January 13, 2018

The end of demand-pull inflation

The story of the 1960s-80s is history: no more " too much money chasing too few goods"/ wage-price spirals, i.e. demand pull inflation.  ... Read More >>

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Bond market risks: two more "known unknowns"

"Who is over-leveraged in the bond market? How has the legal protection of creditors been eroded, making them more vulnerable? Known unknown... Read More >>

Friday, December 22, 2017

RTHK Radio Show Notes: Tax reform's sophistry

That this reform passed with a majority of two Senate votes reeks of sophistry. China's pragmatism. .  1.  US Tax reform passes House ... Read More >>

Friday, November 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: profit-taking ensures bonuses; Japan

Forget the excuses behind this Wednesday's market sell-off: traders want to lock in year-end bonuses, so they have to take profits. Some thoughts... Read More >>

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Monday, August 14, 2017

No ETF bubble

The press is agonising about this.  We question why. Bubble trouble. For some months we have voiced concerns about a  stock market... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Central Bank Fog, Bank Stress Tests and HK 20 years on

CONFUSING SMOKE SIGNALS[1] Central bank fears.  Quite correctly, Central Banks fear the return of inflation.  Given my ... Read More >>

Sunday, June 25, 2017

The Fed and the Treasury: Who is boss?

We all know that the Fed is in the business of controlling its mini-rates, the Fed Funds. But with the unwinding of QE, it just could be that the T... Read More >>

Sunday, June 18, 2017

USA & China: Mini Super-Tuesday

This Tuesday will reveal whether Georgia will elect a Democrat congresswoman AND whether the MSCI will embrace  China’s A shares.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, June 01, 2017

USA: Worsening Economic Time as of 2H18

Based on their anachronistic thinking about inflation, the Fed will overshoot when raising rates. That will choke the economy. When do markets star... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Trump: Just what is an "Executive Order"?

Since Trump took the helm, he has issued at least four Executive Orders.  Based on his personality,  he will continue ruling s... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Friday, January 20, 2017

Trump: So who will be the Apprentice?

So who will be teaching whom as of today in America?  Who gets fired first?  Inertia Trump will run the country like he ra... Read More >>

Friday, December 16, 2016

USA & China: Risks of a change in Economic Time

America's Economic Time® keeps improving; China's keeps worsening. America's Economic Time®.  For the past year, America's Econom... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

China and Hong Kong: Why you should sell

 The global Economic Time® is worsening in China and Hong Kong: sell in December and go away. CHINA China is seeking a World Trade Orga... Read More >>

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Radio Show: America's good Economic Time

Why you should be buying American stocks and bonds. US In a series of tweets overnight, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will be ... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show: USA: Trump and Markets

Trump's infrastructure spending plans are ineffectual. Why you should buy in to the recent bond market America. US Donald Trump... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Why the Fed won't hike next month

   Top three buying themes Water shares (geopolitical: the new "oil") Agricultural (La Nina rears its... Read More >>

Friday, September 30, 2016

Radio Show: Why the Fed CANNOT be "independent:"

FED Pressure is mounting on the U.S. Federal Reserve over its independence. At Monday night’s Presidential debate, Donald Trump, accused... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed: Driving with a rear-view mirror

The Fed is working with an anachronistic model. Keep buying China and America. Deja vu For those (younger) market observers shocked... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Global: Low bond yields; China's disparate growth

Low bond yields mean that the ageing population has to save more, so down goes investment. An improved Economic Time in China keeps suggesting a ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

The Debt Time Bomb: radio show

America's leveraged corporate debt is more dangerous than China's unleveraged domestic debt.  Investment implications. DEBT TIME BOMB Ratin... Read More >>


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