Thursday, March 15, 2018

USD Yield Curve: why it must flatten & what to do about it

The yield curve must flatten once investors move into a 22nd-century inflation mind set. What to do about a flatter yield curve What are the p... Read More >>

Thursday, February 22, 2018

FOMC Outlook: a contrarian's view

Inflation fears are unfounded in facts; thus, bond yields will decline. Expect the Euro to tumble as of 4th March. 1.  FOMC Minutes.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Economic Time: sneak attack from the REAL economy

America's and the global Economic Time is worsening - but not for the reason that you may think. Profits implications. Supranationals' 20/20... Read More >>

Monday, February 05, 2018

RTHK3 Radio Notes: Kaiser Trump's "State of the Disarray" Speech

Some acerbic remarks re Kaiser Trump's State of the Disarray speech. 1.  State of the Union – or State of Disarray?[1] a.&... Read More >>

Sunday, January 28, 2018

RTHK 3 Radio Show Notes: no inflation, so a flatter yield curve

With wage-push (demand -pull) inflation virtually dead, there is NO bond bear market. So do NOT buy banks! Protectionism vs globalisation at D... Read More >>

Friday, January 26, 2018

Speaking Notes: Investments and Risks, 2018

The G-3's and China's Economic Time is just fine. But watch out for "unknown unknowns" lurking in the bond market...   I INTRODUCTION T... Read More >>

Friday, January 19, 2018

Oil price:soft landing

The oil price will soften from its current level of about USD 64/barrel (West Texas Intermediate). Demand vs supply.  The staple diet of ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 13, 2018

The end of demand-pull inflation

The story of the 1960s-80s is history: no more " too much money chasing too few goods"/ wage-price spirals, i.e. demand pull inflation.  ... Read More >>

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Bond market risks: two more "known unknowns"

"Who is over-leveraged in the bond market? How has the legal protection of creditors been eroded, making them more vulnerable? Known unknown... Read More >>

Friday, December 22, 2017

RTHK Radio Show Notes: Tax reform's sophistry

That this reform passed with a majority of two Senate votes reeks of sophistry. China's pragmatism. .  1.  US Tax reform passes House ... Read More >>

Friday, December 22, 2017

Bloomberg Radio Interview. 2018 : Unspoken market risks

The riskiest risks are the "unknown unknowns", tail-gated by the "known unknowns".  1.  What do you see as the biggest risks as we e... Read More >>

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Radio Show notes:Greed is a bad counselor: thoughts on market tumbles and tulip coin

Markets are tumbling because traders are locking-in their bonuses. Meanwhile, bitcoin is going through the roof  - just like tulips did in the... Read More >>

Sunday, November 26, 2017

USA: Why the tax cuts won't go through

They won't go through because of spite. Trump has alienated so many in Congress that they will take out their anger on him by not cutting taxes.&nb... Read More >>

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Central Bank Fog, Bank Stress Tests and HK 20 years on

CONFUSING SMOKE SIGNALS[1] Central bank fears.  Quite correctly, Central Banks fear the return of inflation.  Given my ... Read More >>

Sunday, June 25, 2017

The Fed and the Treasury: Who is boss?

We all know that the Fed is in the business of controlling its mini-rates, the Fed Funds. But with the unwinding of QE, it just could be that the T... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Economic Time and Your Investing

Here are the notes to an investment  speech which I gave on 9th June here in Hong Kong: the Economic Clock®, social unrest, defence and ed... Read More >>

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Thoughts on Super Thursday

SUPER THURSDAY -Notes for today’s RTHK radio show, Hong Kong: UK election, ECB and Comey's testimony- 1. UK ELECTION a. Here are my observati... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 26, 2017

USA: Trump honeymoon over yet?

Since Trump's November victory, the Dow has surged nine per cent. Quo vadis?  The Dow Jones Industrial Average has crossed the 20,000 lev... Read More >>

Friday, January 20, 2017

Trump: So who will be the Apprentice?

So who will be teaching whom as of today in America?  Who gets fired first?  Inertia Trump will run the country like he ra... Read More >>

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Radio Show: America's good Economic Time

Why you should be buying American stocks and bonds. US In a series of tweets overnight, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will be ... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show: USA: Trump and Markets

Trump's infrastructure spending plans are ineffectual. Why you should buy in to the recent bond market sell-off.in America. US Donald Trump... Read More >>

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Radio Show: Where the IMF is erring

 The IMF just lambasted Central Banks for blocking world growth. We think it's the corrupt politicians who thrive on "Moneyocracy".  Bank... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Why the Fed won't hike next month

   Top three buying themes Water shares (geopolitical: the new "oil") Agricultural (La Nina rears its... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Disfigured valuations: you may as well keep buying high yield bonds

  G3 Central Banks have disfigured the market's pricing mechanism to such a degree that talk of "overvaluation" is misplaced: "overvalued" rel... Read More >>

Friday, August 05, 2016

Defence: the start of the East Asian arms race

At a press conference on 4th August, the East Asian arms race was heralded.  The investment implication is obvious. THAAD In e... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Currencies, the US stock market, & Greece

A rising US stock market will keep propelling the dollar; the opposite holds true for the RMB. US DOLLAR The surging US dollar is having ripples ... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Friday, May 06, 2016

2016-2035: U.S. real stock & bond returns

What will U.S. stocks and bonds return over the next 20 years?  Source Just this May, i.e. now , McKinsey and Company released ... Read More >>

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