Thursday, March 15, 2018

USD Yield Curve: why it must flatten & what to do about it

The yield curve must flatten once investors move into a 22nd-century inflation mind set. What to do about a flatter yield curve What are the p... Read More >>

Sunday, January 28, 2018

RTHK 3 Radio Show Notes: no inflation, so a flatter yield curve

With wage-push (demand -pull) inflation virtually dead, there is NO bond bear market. So do NOT buy banks! Protectionism vs globalisation at D... Read More >>

Saturday, January 13, 2018

The end of demand-pull inflation

The story of the 1960s-80s is history: no more " too much money chasing too few goods"/ wage-price spirals, i.e. demand pull inflation.  ... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Bond yields: the old normal returns

Bond yields to remain low, in line with history.   Buy on bond market dips 1.  NBER investment blockbuster.  If you are unaware... Read More >>

Saturday, December 23, 2017

Bond market risks: two more "known unknowns"

"Who is over-leveraged in the bond market? How has the legal protection of creditors been eroded, making them more vulnerable? Known unknown... Read More >>

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Radio Show notes:Greed is a bad counselor: thoughts on market tumbles and tulip coin

Markets are tumbling because traders are locking-in their bonuses. Meanwhile, bitcoin is going through the roof  - just like tulips did in the... Read More >>

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

The Fallible Fed: 50+ years of policy "wrongness"

Those "experts"at the Fed are no better than "Joe Sixpack" at forecasting - but they are more powerful.  What follows are 50 years of  po... Read More >>

Sunday, June 18, 2017

USA & China: Mini Super-Tuesday

This Tuesday will reveal whether Georgia will elect a Democrat congresswoman AND whether the MSCI will embrace  China’s A shares.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

China: Why the RMB keeps wilting

China's Economic Time® has worsened. Avoid her and thus Hong Kong's stock markets Changed Economic Clock® On 16th December w... Read More >>

Friday, December 16, 2016

USA & China: Risks of a change in Economic Time

America's Economic Time® keeps improving; China's keeps worsening. America's Economic Time®.  For the past year, America's Econom... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed: Driving with a rear-view mirror

The Fed is working with an anachronistic model. Keep buying China and America. Deja vu For those (younger) market observers shocked... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Disfigured valuations: you may as well keep buying high yield bonds

  G3 Central Banks have disfigured the market's pricing mechanism to such a degree that talk of "overvaluation" is misplaced: "overvalued" rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 07, 2016

Radio Show. Brussels fudge: an Italian tax payer bailout

Godiva is launching a new product:" Brussels Fudge". Watch tax payers bail out Italian banks - totally contrary to the new banking directive of ea... Read More >>

Monday, July 04, 2016

Asset Allocation: Brussels fudge and Hong Kong's stale noodles

 Why you should underweight Europe and Hong Kong. 1.  Dominoes falling in Europe - where else might follow? Political as well as r... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Currencies, the US stock market, & Greece

A rising US stock market will keep propelling the dollar; the opposite holds true for the RMB. US DOLLAR The surging US dollar is having ripples ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Why Keynes works in China and why HK's market keeps going to pot

RTHK Radio show notes on why Keynes works in China and why HK's market keeps going to pot. China infrastructure spending China's M... Read More >>

Friday, May 06, 2016

2016-2035: U.S. real stock & bond returns

What will U.S. stocks and bonds return over the next 20 years?  Source Just this May, i.e. now , McKinsey and Company released ... Read More >>

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Radio Show on USA : the Floundering Open Market Committee

Dr Yellen keeps shifting the basis upon which to formulate interest rate policy.  Investment implication.  FOMC  Its ... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Negative rates: why they cannot depress currencies

How come negative interest rates have stopped depressing  their respective currencies? Investment implications. Backgrounder T... Read More >>

Thursday, February 11, 2016

America's Fed: shifting sands

On 10th February, Dr Yellen re-emphasized just how much she shifts the sand and thus prevaricates... China's centrality In her state... Read More >>

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Japan: how to profit from her broken Economic Clock

Japan's politicians and Bank of Japan (BoJ) have broken her Economic Clock®. Crazy investment implication. What a broken clock does ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Radio notes: of turnover addiction; circuit breakers and normal market turbulence

Market turbulence is goaded by profit-driven banks; Ominously, Hong Kong wants to introduce market circuit breakers this June... MARKETS DRIVEN B... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

RMB: why a basket case?

On 11th December, Beijing decided to run the RMB against a basket of currencies. Backgrounder and investment implication. Reminders ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>


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