Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Saturday, August 19, 2017

China's Stocks: A Primer

Ever got confused by China's alphabet soup when it comes to As, Hs, Ps,  and Red Chips? Let's clear the fog! Source. The following commen... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China:Definitely a worse Economic Time

Get out and stay out of China and her satellite markets!  Wilting RMB Back on 20th December 2016 we advised that the evidence-b... Read More >>

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Radio Show: Why you should look to sell China & Hong Kong

 Start planning to sell both markets: China's Economic Time® is worsening, as is Hong Kong's.   CHINA FX RESERVES China’s f... Read More >>

Thursday, October 20, 2016

China: Good GDP and CPI Data

GDP and inflation are encouraging for those wanting to buy the market. THIRD QUARTER GDP ~Economic Time®: Excess supply of money &... Read More >>

Monday, October 10, 2016

China: Weaker RMB and Disparate Fiscal Policy

In the nearer term, China's monetary policy bodes well for markets. In the longer term, her fiscal policy does not.  Softer  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Finance: What to be scared of

Don't worry about China's banks; do worry about America's student and car loans! China's banks According to the Bank for Internatio... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed: Driving with a rear-view mirror

The Fed is working with an anachronistic model. Keep buying China and America. Deja vu For those (younger) market observers shocked... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

RMB: Why it must fall further

A weaker RMB is part of China's newer policy. Don't load up.  Financial Times (FT) The front page of today's FT was festooned ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Currencies, the US stock market, & Greece

A rising US stock market will keep propelling the dollar; the opposite holds true for the RMB. US DOLLAR The surging US dollar is having ripples ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Zhang Dejiang in HK; Fed thinking

ZHANG DEJIANG In his keynote speech yesterday at the Belt and Road Summit, National People’s Congress chairman Zhang Dejiang identified ... Read More >>

Thursday, April 07, 2016

Radio Interview: Fed, China & Hong Kong

  The Floundering OMC; stabilising China and rotting Hong Kong  FED MINUTES The minutes of the US Federal Reserve Bank’s Marc... Read More >>

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Radio Show: the Floundering Open Market Committee

Given recent statements, the "F" in the FOMC deserves "Floundering".  "Paroles" in  China. Investment implications. Here is w... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: Potential policy blunders

Collateralized debt obligations and Keynesian fiscal expansion are dangerous and misguided. Investment implications. "The Big Short" ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Radio notes: of turnover addiction; circuit breakers and normal market turbulence

Market turbulence is goaded by profit-driven banks; Ominously, Hong Kong wants to introduce market circuit breakers this June... MARKETS DRIVEN B... Read More >>

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Radio interview: Market Crash/ Fed/Oil

There is more to the market crash than China's slowdown.  Investment implications. Market crash: is it the slowdown in China or is that just... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Hong Kong: Circuit breakers in June

We all know what havoc China's recent circuit breakers wreaked.  Expect the same for  Hong Kong this June. Investment implication. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China: Why the RMB must fall by at least 10%

The Central Bank is caught in a policy dilemma. It will opt for growth, hence a mushier RMB.   Worse Economic Time® In our ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 07, 2016

RTHK: China & America markets

Chinese and American economic data are tenuous. Investment implications.  CHINA PMI New economic data shows that the services sector in C... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

RMB: why a basket case?

On 11th December, Beijing decided to run the RMB against a basket of currencies. Backgrounder and investment implication. Reminders ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

China flirts with the supply side

Next to its Keynesian policies to create demand, Beijing wants to create a business-friendlier supply-side environment. Investment implications. &... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

RMB: Why it won't "internationalise"

Much has been made of the "internationalisation" of the RMB. now that it is part of the SDR basket. We think that tighter controls are looming. ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Thursday, November 19, 2015

FOMC & Chinese Housing Data: Radio interview

The FOMC is a camel designed by committee, and China's housing starts suggest a delicate improvement in the nation's Economic Time. investment imp... Read More >>

Saturday, November 14, 2015

RMB: a secondary SDR member by 30/11/15

What happens if the RMB is included in the SDR basket by the end of November? Investment implications? We all know that the IMF 's main  boar... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

China: interest rates cut - but NOT liberalized!

On Friday, 23rd October, China announced rate cuts as well as "liberalization". We dispute the latter. That raises investment implications.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 08, 2015

IMF's, Japan's & USA's losses of market credibility: RTHK Radio Show

The irrelevance of the IMF markets; the loss of market credibility of the Fed and Bank of Japan   IMF's recent irrelevancies "IM... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Sunday, September 06, 2015

China: Buy on weakness

Buy China on weakness: you can have slower growth AND a stronger stock market after all! Old advice  We have been recommending... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

China: Bloomberg TV interview

Readers know why we have contrarian bets on China. Here is this morning's Bloomberg TV interview on said subject, in which I delve deeper into pol... Read More >>

Monday, August 31, 2015

China: Buy weakness

The market remains  mesmerized by yesterday's news.  So everyone is selling. Why you should defy the herd.  Pop... Read More >>

Thursday, August 27, 2015

It's always windy ahead of a weather change!

Here are more thoughts on what really is behind all of this market volatility: it's always windy ahead of a weather change! The Econom... Read More >>