Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Saturday, August 19, 2017

China's Stocks: A Primer

Ever got confused by China's alphabet soup when it comes to As, Hs, Ps,  and Red Chips? Let's clear the fog! Source. The following commen... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

China: Why the RMB keeps wilting

China's Economic Time® has worsened. Avoid her and thus Hong Kong's stock markets Changed Economic Clock® On 16th December w... Read More >>

Thursday, October 20, 2016

China: Good GDP and CPI Data

GDP and inflation are encouraging for those wanting to buy the market. THIRD QUARTER GDP ~Economic Time®: Excess supply of money &... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Finance: What to be scared of

Don't worry about China's banks; do worry about America's student and car loans! China's banks According to the Bank for Internatio... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

The Debt Time Bomb: radio show

America's leveraged corporate debt is more dangerous than China's unleveraged domestic debt.  Investment implications. DEBT TIME BOMB Ratin... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Zhang Dejiang in HK; Fed thinking

ZHANG DEJIANG In his keynote speech yesterday at the Belt and Road Summit, National People’s Congress chairman Zhang Dejiang identified ... Read More >>

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Radio Show: the Floundering Open Market Committee

Given recent statements, the "F" in the FOMC deserves "Floundering".  "Paroles" in  China. Investment implications. Here is w... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: Potential policy blunders

Collateralized debt obligations and Keynesian fiscal expansion are dangerous and misguided. Investment implications. "The Big Short" ... Read More >>

Sunday, March 06, 2016

China: five key policy issues

What are the five key issues demanding discussion at the National People's Congress? Change in leadership style The South China Mor... Read More >>

Thursday, January 28, 2016

Radio notes: of turnover addiction; circuit breakers and normal market turbulence

Market turbulence is goaded by profit-driven banks; Ominously, Hong Kong wants to introduce market circuit breakers this June... MARKETS DRIVEN B... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 21, 2016

Radio interview: Market Crash/ Fed/Oil

There is more to the market crash than China's slowdown.  Investment implications. Market crash: is it the slowdown in China or is that just... Read More >>

Friday, January 15, 2016

Hong Kong/China: a political "sell"

Received wisdom is that Pres. Xi Jinping is a hard liner.  What his centralisation means for market regulation and Hong Kong.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China: Why the RMB must fall by at least 10%

The Central Bank is caught in a policy dilemma. It will opt for growth, hence a mushier RMB.   Worse Economic Time® In our ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 09, 2016

China: Worse Economic Time

Currency support worsens China's Economic Time®. Avoid this market for a year.   Monetary economy  convulsions Accordi... Read More >>

Thursday, January 07, 2016

RTHK: China & America markets

Chinese and American economic data are tenuous. Investment implications.  CHINA PMI New economic data shows that the services sector in C... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 15, 2015

China flirts with the supply side

Next to its Keynesian policies to create demand, Beijing wants to create a business-friendlier supply-side environment. Investment implications. &... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 09, 2015

RMB: Why it won't "internationalise"

Much has been made of the "internationalisation" of the RMB. now that it is part of the SDR basket. We think that tighter controls are looming. ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Saturday, November 14, 2015

RMB: a secondary SDR member by 30/11/15

What happens if the RMB is included in the SDR basket by the end of November? Investment implications? We all know that the IMF 's main  boar... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 11, 2015

China: interest rates cut - but NOT liberalized!

On Friday, 23rd October, China announced rate cuts as well as "liberalization". We dispute the latter. That raises investment implications.  ... Read More >>

Sunday, September 06, 2015

China: Buy on weakness

Buy China on weakness: you can have slower growth AND a stronger stock market after all! Old advice  We have been recommending... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Monday, August 31, 2015

China: Buy weakness

The market remains  mesmerized by yesterday's news.  So everyone is selling. Why you should defy the herd.  Pop... Read More >>

Monday, July 27, 2015

China: Mystery mayhem

Nobody convincingly can explain today's market plunge. Perhaps margin calls lurking in the jungles of shadow banking? Government to blame.&nbs... Read More >>

Sunday, June 21, 2015

China: Why the RMB must soften

We remain  fundamental China optimists. However, with the introduction of QDII2 this year, expect the RMB to soften: good news for exporters. ... Read More >>

Friday, June 19, 2015

China: Let's TWIST again

China wants more of its easy money going in to loans. Here is how, and what that means for investing.   Double-barreled strategy.  T... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

China: a profitable June looms

This June, both the MSCI and probably the IMF will announce inclusion of China in their respective  baskets. Keep buying. Promising signs... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Hong Kong/China & oil: today's radio show

Why you must buy China and Hong Kong stocks - and why you must short oil.     Have a listen at http://programme.rthk.hk/channel/radi... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

China: Xi will pursue more graft than growth in 2015

Money can't help. in mid-November we issued a missive on how China's small- and medium-sized enterprises cannot be helped by official brandish... Read More >>

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Peoples' Blank of China: Nice try, but...

Lower rates. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) just this Friday: 1) lowered its benchmark one-year lending rate by 40 basis points (bp), to 5.... Read More >>

Friday, November 14, 2014

China: More money cannot help SMEs

Structural obstacles.  In our recent missive, we noted that small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs)  are cut off from the credit ... Read More >>

Friday, November 07, 2014

China: How fiscal policies amplify business cycles

Structural flaws in monetary policy.  Just yesterday we suggested that there are various structural flaws in China's monetary policy, fla... Read More >>

Sunday, September 21, 2014

China's slower growth rate more profitable than you think!

Much ado about nothing.  Many people are worried about the implications of slower Chinese growth.  These implications  are... Read More >>

Friday, July 11, 2014

Money Market Funds: Caveat emptor

 The theory. We all know what money market funds (MMFs) are supposed to be made of: conservatively-invested cash. The reality. But th... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Today's CCTV Interview: Why short Chinese and Hong Kong Banks?

1) How stable are Hong Kong's local banks given their extensive exposure to Mainland banks and its slowing economy? a. Concerning their domestic e... Read More >>