Monday, October 09, 2017

What will trigger the next market crash?

We read the Financial Times and Economist regularly as part of our intellectual diet.  Both carried articles this week about the non-likelihoo... Read More >>

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Central Bank Fog, Bank Stress Tests and HK 20 years on

CONFUSING SMOKE SIGNALS[1] Central bank fears.  Quite correctly, Central Banks fear the return of inflation.  Given my ... Read More >>

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Thoughts on Super Thursday

SUPER THURSDAY -Notes for today’s RTHK radio show, Hong Kong: UK election, ECB and Comey's testimony- 1. UK ELECTION a. Here are my observati... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Radio Show: Why you must avoid financial stocks

Plenty of Brussels Fudge being made in the company of Merkel and Renzi. Don't "eat" (aka buy) their story: there IS a financial crisis in Europe! ... Read More >>

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Central Banks: policy contradictions

What both banks pretend to be targeting in terms of inflation is contradicted by their actions. Investment implications.  Inflation... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Economic Clock: where are we in the cycle?

We reveal what our Economic Clock is telling us - and, thus, how to invest. The Economic Clock Readers know that we have been runnin... Read More >>

Sunday, March 06, 2016

China: five key policy issues

What are the five key issues demanding discussion at the National People's Congress? Change in leadership style The South China Mor... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Negative rates: why they cannot depress currencies

How come negative interest rates have stopped depressing  their respective currencies? Investment implications. Backgrounder T... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

RTHK Radio: Europe and seven investment themes

Why you should short the Euro. Seven investment themes, some odd ones, for 2016. 1. The Euro and the European Union For the EU headline the Finla... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

When the US rate hike? Three pointers

When will the Fed hike rates? Three things to watch out for. IF ... unemployment dips below 5.3% AND IF consumer price in... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

Greece is winning the game of chicken, so buy into weakness

More of the same? All politics are domestic, as Tip O'Neil observed so brilliantly so many years ago. Tsipras has eroded is domestic pol... Read More >>

Friday, July 10, 2015

China and Europe are on sale: load-up!

Chinese caving-in The market upturn was predictable; expect more Central Bank easing. Europeans caving-in Tsipras is w... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Friday, June 05, 2015

Radio Show: The Fed is tightenig already!

The Fed has been tightening for some months by virtue of stopping QE; why Greece is winning the game of chicken, and where to put your money http:/... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Friday, May 08, 2015

Greece: she wins game of chicken by 29/5

"GR" in Grexit should stand  for "Good Riddance". Yet another roadmap to oblivion. The Greeks keep winning this game of chicken!   T... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Grexit: game of chicken or Good Riddance?

    Greece prepares to declare default.  What might this mean for markets? Game, set, match. Perhaps presciently on 1s... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Grexit: potential dangers thereof

Whilst we do not foresee Grexit, it's best to beware of its consequences Game of chicken. This February we wrote that this whole Grexit m... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Europe & Japan: Overweight

Just go with the flow and buy these two markets: liquidity-driven upside whilst politicians kick the empty & noisy can of reforms down the road... Read More >>

Friday, March 06, 2015

China's growth model evolving

Self-flagellation. Just yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang castigated his own government for all of the flaws which it is making in the growth depa... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Brussels and Minsk: Tales of two cities

Brussels: plus ca la meme chose.  Current negotiations between Greece and the Troika are just a game of chicken: who will cl... Read More >>

Friday, January 23, 2015

Tactical volte face: go long Europe

Structurally bearish on Europe.  Readers know of my distaste for European politicians: they won't reform their economies, and can get awa... Read More >>

Monday, January 12, 2015

Blooomberg TV: Why markets will crash

Markets will crash because of currency mismatches.  My Bloomberg TV interview of today: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/emerging-market-debt-cr... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

June outlook:cheap gold in the mush of 1H15

Our coverage of oil.  More recently,  we have issued four blogs on this slippery subject. In the first piece  on 8th ... Read More >>

Friday, October 24, 2014

Sunday ALERT: ECB's stress tests released

 Aberration. Our readers know that I work on about a six-month time horizon, so today's note is an aberration in that we are discussing s... Read More >>

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Asset Allocation: Third Quarter 2014

Here are some notes prepared for my TV show on Bloomberg and a radio show on Hong Kong's RTHK Investment strategy. Sectors you like/don't like... Read More >>

Saturday, June 14, 2014

China: More than a change in Economic Time: go long

Short Europe. Just a couple of days ago we released a scathing piece about why you should short Europe: her politicians are refusing to enact ... Read More >>