Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Monday, August 08, 2016

China: The myth of a cheaper RMB boosting exports

We never bought the simplistic story that a cheaper currency on its own boosts exports.  Investment implication: don't be fooled!  ... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Europe: why monetary stimuli cannot work

The ECB is chasing elephants with a pop gun. Investment implication.   Missing the point On 10th March we suggested that chasin... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Negative rates: why they cannot depress currencies

How come negative interest rates have stopped depressing  their respective currencies? Investment implications. Backgrounder T... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Saturday, November 14, 2015

RMB: a secondary SDR member by 30/11/15

What happens if the RMB is included in the SDR basket by the end of November? Investment implications? We all know that the IMF 's main  boar... Read More >>

Monday, November 09, 2015

Fed policy: two longs and three shorts

Which bonds to buy if rates rise? Fed leadership vacuum Just last week we railed against Dr. Yellen: we just don't know what this tw... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Friday, June 05, 2015

Radio Show: The Fed is tightenig already!

The Fed has been tightening for some months by virtue of stopping QE; why Greece is winning the game of chicken, and where to put your money http:/... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Friday, May 08, 2015

Greece: she wins game of chicken by 29/5

"GR" in Grexit should stand  for "Good Riddance". Yet another roadmap to oblivion. The Greeks keep winning this game of chicken!   T... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Grexit: game of chicken or Good Riddance?

    Greece prepares to declare default.  What might this mean for markets? Game, set, match. Perhaps presciently on 1s... Read More >>

Saturday, April 11, 2015

China's Markets: Four-barrelled good news

Four imminent policy changes will proper China's markets even higher: rate and reserve cuts & two quota increases Economic Time® the t... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Grexit: potential dangers thereof

Whilst we do not foresee Grexit, it's best to beware of its consequences Game of chicken. This February we wrote that this whole Grexit m... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Swiss Franc: Sell now!

By 1st April, individuals must PAY a tax of 0.75% on their Swiss Franc cash holdings What we got wrong.  On 16th January, we a... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Exchange rates: why they don't determine trade flows

Multinationals, not exchange rates, drive trade flows! How multinationals influence trade balances.  At its simplest: as Coca-Cola  ... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Brussels and Minsk: Tales of two cities

Brussels: plus ca la meme chose.  Current negotiations between Greece and the Troika are just a game of chicken: who will cl... Read More >>

Monday, January 26, 2015

Greek elections: plus ca meme chose

Tactical volte face.  Readers know that just this Friday, 23rd January, we caved-in to the market reality stronger European bourses, cour... Read More >>

Friday, January 23, 2015

Tactical volte face: go long Europe

Structurally bearish on Europe.  Readers know of my distaste for European politicians: they won't reform their economies, and can get awa... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

In Gold we trust: another buying insight

Insurance, not investment. On 6th January we re-iterated out recommendation that you buy gold as an insurance policy. It should constitut... Read More >>

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Lower oil defines stronger dollar: why?

Less petro-dollar revenues. Back on 29th November we pixeled a piece, "Dollar: Simple take-aways".  In point two we noted that "...when t... Read More >>

Friday, January 16, 2015

SF/Euro + 53% by June: Swiss Franc +25%; Euro -15%

The Swiss have hastened the demise of the Euro, so the SF rises by 25% and the Euro falls by 15% No review. If you don't know about Thursd... Read More >>

Monday, January 12, 2015

Blooomberg TV: Why markets will crash

Markets will crash because of currency mismatches.  My Bloomberg TV interview of today: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/emerging-market-debt-cr... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

June outlook:cheap gold in the mush of 1H15

Our coverage of oil.  More recently,  we have issued four blogs on this slippery subject. In the first piece  on 8th ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 06, 2014

USA: Republicans and a stronger dollar

Republican dollar. Given the Republicans' victories, the dollar should strengthen even more than had the Democrats not lost. Congress is b... Read More >>

Thursday, August 07, 2014

3Q14: sector allocation, yields ,the Euro & a carry trade

Which stock markets? We recently did a couple of press shows suggesting that you want to short Europe and Japan, and go long China and America... Read More >>

Friday, June 06, 2014

Europe: Short it - II: Monetary policy is a non-sticking band-aid

Self-congratulatory politicians. Back on 21st May we already warned  that the European "recovery" is a dangerous chimera.  indeed, a... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: G3 Currencies

Recently we posited that the reason for market undulations is very much because the G-3's members , are undergoing changes in their respective Econ... Read More >>

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Europe has voted itself out of a business cycle

Rocketing prices.  On 15th and 21st March we suggested the myth of deflation. If anything, cost-push inflation is alive and kicking. ... Read More >>

Monday, September 23, 2013

Germany’s Deathly Dance

These controversial thoughts are not ones that you will find in any mainstream press! They certainly are unpopular with my German friends, but I am... Read More >>

Monday, June 24, 2013

Changing Economic Time®: So, how do I invest now?

How to invest now? We provide strategic (i.e. NOT "timing"/ "tactical" ) asset allocation thoughts concerning which instruments, markets, sectors, ... Read More >>

Thursday, February 07, 2013

Europe: Don’t believe the illusion!

Readers know that I am particularly bearish on Europe, having lived in that beautiful museum for 20 years. Problem is that instead of being full of... Read More >>

Monday, December 24, 2012

Strategic Asset Allocation 2013: Unseen storm clouds

Please excuse the lapse in posting my thoughts. Something funny was happening in Cyberspace, no doubt stemming from the Mayan Culture's forecast of... Read More >>

Friday, December 14, 2012

Central Banks - or Politicians' Piggy Banks?

Readers know of my jaundiced view of politicians.  Yes, their job is to juggle vested interests - but whether it is the East's "honest" (aka b... Read More >>

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Naked Emperor: Why the Euro cover-up?

We just bellowed on Bloomberg this morning about the hypocrisy of the Euro's negotiators. Just how stupid do they think that we all are?  Does... Read More >>

Thursday, November 15, 2012

European Kleptocrats: Investment implications

A couple of days ago we aired investment implications of overall political irresponsibility. Today we hone-in on the disaster unravelling in Europ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Why the Euro must crack and thus why America must win

Tomorrow, Friday, Bloomberg TV-Europe has invited me at 12:10 noon, HK time.  Here are my acerbic thoughts on the Euro.  Having lived so ... Read More >>