Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, June 29, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Central Bank Fog, Bank Stress Tests and HK 20 years on

CONFUSING SMOKE SIGNALS[1] Central bank fears.  Quite correctly, Central Banks fear the return of inflation.  Given my ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Radio Show: Why you must avoid financial stocks

Plenty of Brussels Fudge being made in the company of Merkel and Renzi. Don't "eat" (aka buy) their story: there IS a financial crisis in Europe! ... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Thursday, June 23, 2016

BREXIT: investment implications & podcast

Talked to death already, we offer a couple of investment implications. Shouldn't the "BR" stand for Brussels? My position For w... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Central Banks: policy contradictions

What both banks pretend to be targeting in terms of inflation is contradicted by their actions. Investment implications.  Inflation... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Economic Clock: where are we in the cycle?

We reveal what our Economic Clock is telling us - and, thus, how to invest. The Economic Clock Readers know that we have been runnin... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Europe: why monetary stimuli cannot work

The ECB is chasing elephants with a pop gun. Investment implication.   Missing the point On 10th March we suggested that chasin... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 12, 2015

China & the EU: RTHK Radio Show Notes

Here are my speaker's notes for this morning's radio show SINGLES DAY Mainland China’s Singles Day, the world’s biggest shoppi... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece and Germany: Profitable paradox

Greece and Germany: Profitable  paradox In each case, the  conservatives are playing OPPOSITE roles. How to profit off this bifurcation... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Friday, June 05, 2015

Radio Show: The Fed is tightenig already!

The Fed has been tightening for some months by virtue of stopping QE; why Greece is winning the game of chicken, and where to put your money http:/... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Friday, May 08, 2015

Greece: she wins game of chicken by 29/5

"GR" in Grexit should stand  for "Good Riddance". Yet another roadmap to oblivion. The Greeks keep winning this game of chicken!   T... Read More >>

Saturday, April 11, 2015

China's Markets: Four-barrelled good news

Four imminent policy changes will proper China's markets even higher: rate and reserve cuts & two quota increases Economic Time® the t... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Europe & Japan: Overweight

Just go with the flow and buy these two markets: liquidity-driven upside whilst politicians kick the empty & noisy can of reforms down the road... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Friday, March 06, 2015

China's growth model evolving

Self-flagellation. Just yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang castigated his own government for all of the flaws which it is making in the growth depa... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Brussels and Minsk: Tales of two cities

Brussels: plus ca la meme chose.  Current negotiations between Greece and the Troika are just a game of chicken: who will cl... Read More >>

Monday, January 26, 2015

Greek elections: plus ca meme chose

Tactical volte face.  Readers know that just this Friday, 23rd January, we caved-in to the market reality stronger European bourses, cour... Read More >>

Friday, January 23, 2015

Tactical volte face: go long Europe

Structurally bearish on Europe.  Readers know of my distaste for European politicians: they won't reform their economies, and can get awa... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

June outlook:cheap gold in the mush of 1H15

Our coverage of oil.  More recently,  we have issued four blogs on this slippery subject. In the first piece  on 8th ... Read More >>

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Sunday's stress test results: just how much capital must be raised?

Tomorrow. Just yesterday we released a piece outlining a hitherto pretty disregarded event: the release of the European Central Bank's (ECB's)... Read More >>

Friday, October 24, 2014

Sunday ALERT: ECB's stress tests released

 Aberration. Our readers know that I work on about a six-month time horizon, so today's note is an aberration in that we are discussing s... Read More >>

Saturday, June 14, 2014

China: More than a change in Economic Time: go long

Short Europe. Just a couple of days ago we released a scathing piece about why you should short Europe: her politicians are refusing to enact ... Read More >>

Friday, June 06, 2014

Europe: Short it - II: Monetary policy is a non-sticking band-aid

Self-congratulatory politicians. Back on 21st May we already warned  that the European "recovery" is a dangerous chimera.  indeed, a... Read More >>

Monday, May 26, 2014

Today's Bloomberg Interview: Thailand and Europe

Asia Edge Interview. Just this morning we were invited to Bloomberg's Asia Edge. Here is the interview's video. Power Struggle in Thailan... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Europe: Short it

Europe has voted itself out of a business cycle.  At the end of March we released this piece, arguing that the welfare state has given ri... Read More >>

Friday, May 16, 2014

Strategic Asset Allocation: "So what do I do now?"

Recent market drubbings. No prizes for telling you the time by looking at someone else's watch.  Dollar-cost averaging. If you have ... Read More >>

DISCLAIMER: THIS BLOG DOES NOT PROVIDE INVESTMENT ADVICE

The information, including but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material contained on this blog are for informational purposes only and do not necessarily reflect the views or Enzio von Pfeil. The purpose of this blog is to promote broader understanding, knowledge and awareness of various financial and economic topics. It is not intended to be a substitute for regulated professional investment advice. Always seek the advice of your a regulated investment advisor with any questions you may have regarding your specific investment needs or concerns.

Enzio von Pfeil does not recommend or endorse any strategies or ideas mentioned in this blog. Reliance on any information appearing in this blog is solely at your own risk.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU READ, UNDERSTAND, AND AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THESE TERMS WHEN VIEWING, READING OR OBSERVING ANY INFORMATION, DATA OR ANY OTHER FORM OF COMMUNICATION ON THIS BLOG:

Any information provided to you by us, including any promotional material such as photographs, written descriptions, any plans or models, any income estimates or projections (“Information”) have been provided to us by other sources and although we aim to perform due diligence on all information we provide to our Blog subscribers, the Information is provided for general purposes only, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the Information and we do not make any representations, either express or implied, as to the accuracy as to the Information. We recommend that our Blog subscribers undertake their own due diligence in relation to the asset they are considering purchasing, including seeking independent legal and financial advice in relation to their own financial objectives and personal circumstances, prior to signing any agreement or contract with any third parties.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy, likelihood of achievement or reasonableness of any figures, forecasts, prospects or returns (if any) contained in the message. Such figures, forecasts, prospects or returns are by their nature subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. The assumptions and parameters used by www.enziovonpfeil.com (evp.com) are not the only ones that might reasonably have been selected and therefore evp.com does not guarantee the sequence, accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information provided herein. None of evp.com, its members or any of their employees or directors shall be held liable, in any way, for any claims, mistakes, errors or otherwise arising out of or in connection with the content of any form of communication, documentation included in the Blog, via e-mail or any other form of communication.

You are reminded that the content is for personal use and general information only. Under no circumstances is the content intended for and hence the content should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation or recommendation to dispose/sell, an offer or solicitation or recommendation to subscribe in, nor an offer or solicitation or recommendation to buy/acquire and under no circumstances should the content be constituted as provision of any recommendation or investment advice on any securities, investment products, investment arrangements and any other form of investments or legal, tax or other professional advice and therefore should not be relied upon in that regard for making any decision. Unless specifically stated, neither the information nor any opinion contained herein constitutes as an advertisement, an invitation, a solicitation, a recommendation or advice to buy or sell any products, services, securities, futures, options, other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service by evp.com.

Unless stated otherwise, any opinions or views expressed in this communication may not represent those of evp.com. Opinions or views expressed in this communication may differ from those of other departments or third parties, including any opinions or views expressed in any research issued by evp.com.

Any e-mail and any accompanying attachments are not encrypted and cannot be guaranteed to be secure, complete or error-free as electronic communications may be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, delayed or incomplete, and/or may contain viruses. EvP.com, therefore, does not accept any liability for any interception, corruption, loss, destruction, incompleteness, viruses, errors, omissions or delays in relation to this electronic communication. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version. Electronic communications carried within the evp.com system may be monitored. Any communication or message in email form or otherwise may contain confidential information. Any use, dissemination, distribution or reproduction of the relevant information outside the original recipients of any messages  is strictly prohibited. If you receive a message by mistake, please notify the sender by reply email immediately and permanently delete the emails and its contents. Unless otherwise stated, any communication provided is solely for information purposes only.