Thursday, September 21, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Fed Decision

Much ado about nothing. The Fed decides to start tapering (again) and to not increase rates just yet. waiting for Godot? 1. Little to add.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Fed Minutes of 13th - 14th June 2017: Crash 4Q17-2H18

We focus on a) the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, b) the Fed's concerns about low inflation, and c) her concerns about high asset prices and... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Radio Show: America's good Economic Time

Why you should be buying American stocks and bonds. US In a series of tweets overnight, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will be ... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Why the Fed won't hike next month

   Top three buying themes Water shares (geopolitical: the new "oil") Agricultural (La Nina rears its... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

RMB: Why it must fall further

A weaker RMB is part of China's newer policy. Don't load up.  Financial Times (FT) The front page of today's FT was festooned ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Zhang Dejiang in HK; Fed thinking

ZHANG DEJIANG In his keynote speech yesterday at the Belt and Road Summit, National People’s Congress chairman Zhang Dejiang identified ... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Thursday, February 11, 2016

America's Fed: shifting sands

On 10th February, Dr Yellen re-emphasized just how much she shifts the sand and thus prevaricates... China's centrality In her state... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Monday, November 09, 2015

Fed policy: two longs and three shorts

Which bonds to buy if rates rise? Fed leadership vacuum Just last week we railed against Dr. Yellen: we just don't know what this tw... Read More >>

Friday, November 06, 2015

Yellen: worn out her welcome

Yellen is not leading the Fed, so higher volatility is the upshot. "Live possibility" When Dr Yellen stated yesterday that there is ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 29, 2015

The Fed: Worshiping Janus

Dr Yellen is just not in charge of the Fed! We don't know what data they are looking at anymore. Janus He is God of the Doorway, a... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Friday, September 18, 2015

USA: the Fed and the Economic Time

Why buy the markets of America, China, Japan and Europe? Why we were wrong We focused on different numbers than the Fed has. We foc... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Sunday, August 16, 2015

China: No influence on Fed actions

The press and markets over-rate China’s ability to export deflation – and thus to influence Fed policy. 1.   Much ado ... Read More >>

Friday, August 07, 2015

Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September

Here is the recording of today's radio interview: Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September Better US Economic Time.... Read More >>

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Fed will hike rates in September

The Fed meeting confirms our views of an improving Economic Time in America - but expect the face of inflation to have a different complexion.&nbs... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

When the US rate hike? Three pointers

When will the Fed hike rates? Three things to watch out for. IF ... unemployment dips below 5.3% AND IF consumer price in... Read More >>