Thursday, September 21, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Fed Decision

Much ado about nothing. The Fed decides to start tapering (again) and to not increase rates just yet. waiting for Godot? 1. Little to add.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, July 06, 2017

Fed Minutes of 13th - 14th June 2017: Crash 4Q17-2H18

We focus on a) the reduction in the Fed's balance sheet, b) the Fed's concerns about low inflation, and c) her concerns about high asset prices and... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Radio Show: America's good Economic Time

Why you should be buying American stocks and bonds. US In a series of tweets overnight, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will be ... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Tuesday, October 04, 2016

Bloomberg TV: Why the Fed won't hike next month

   Top three buying themes Water shares (geopolitical: the new "oil") Agricultural (La Nina rears its... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

RMB: Why it must fall further

A weaker RMB is part of China's newer policy. Don't load up.  Financial Times (FT) The front page of today's FT was festooned ... Read More >>

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Zhang Dejiang in HK; Fed thinking

ZHANG DEJIANG In his keynote speech yesterday at the Belt and Road Summit, National People’s Congress chairman Zhang Dejiang identified ... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Thursday, February 11, 2016

America's Fed: shifting sands

On 10th February, Dr Yellen re-emphasized just how much she shifts the sand and thus prevaricates... China's centrality In her state... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Monday, November 09, 2015

Fed policy: two longs and three shorts

Which bonds to buy if rates rise? Fed leadership vacuum Just last week we railed against Dr. Yellen: we just don't know what this tw... Read More >>

Friday, November 06, 2015

Yellen: worn out her welcome

Yellen is not leading the Fed, so higher volatility is the upshot. "Live possibility" When Dr Yellen stated yesterday that there is ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 29, 2015

The Fed: Worshiping Janus

Dr Yellen is just not in charge of the Fed! We don't know what data they are looking at anymore. Janus He is God of the Doorway, a... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Friday, September 18, 2015

USA: the Fed and the Economic Time

Why buy the markets of America, China, Japan and Europe? Why we were wrong We focused on different numbers than the Fed has. We foc... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Sunday, August 16, 2015

China: No influence on Fed actions

The press and markets over-rate China’s ability to export deflation – and thus to influence Fed policy. 1.   Much ado ... Read More >>

Friday, August 07, 2015

Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September

Here is the recording of today's radio interview: Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September Better US Economic Time.... Read More >>

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Fed will hike rates in September

The Fed meeting confirms our views of an improving Economic Time in America - but expect the face of inflation to have a different complexion.&nbs... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 29, 2015

When the US rate hike? Three pointers

When will the Fed hike rates? Three things to watch out for. IF ... unemployment dips below 5.3% AND IF consumer price in... Read More >>

DISCLAIMER: THIS BLOG DOES NOT PROVIDE INVESTMENT ADVICE

The information, including but not limited to, text, graphics, images and other material contained on this blog are for informational purposes only and do not necessarily reflect the views or Enzio von Pfeil. The purpose of this blog is to promote broader understanding, knowledge and awareness of various financial and economic topics. It is not intended to be a substitute for regulated professional investment advice. Always seek the advice of your a regulated investment advisor with any questions you may have regarding your specific investment needs or concerns.

Enzio von Pfeil does not recommend or endorse any strategies or ideas mentioned in this blog. Reliance on any information appearing in this blog is solely at your own risk.

IT IS IMPORTANT THAT YOU READ, UNDERSTAND, AND AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THESE TERMS WHEN VIEWING, READING OR OBSERVING ANY INFORMATION, DATA OR ANY OTHER FORM OF COMMUNICATION ON THIS BLOG:

Any information provided to you by us, including any promotional material such as photographs, written descriptions, any plans or models, any income estimates or projections (“Information”) have been provided to us by other sources and although we aim to perform due diligence on all information we provide to our Blog subscribers, the Information is provided for general purposes only, we cannot guarantee the accuracy of the Information and we do not make any representations, either express or implied, as to the accuracy as to the Information. We recommend that our Blog subscribers undertake their own due diligence in relation to the asset they are considering purchasing, including seeking independent legal and financial advice in relation to their own financial objectives and personal circumstances, prior to signing any agreement or contract with any third parties.

No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy, likelihood of achievement or reasonableness of any figures, forecasts, prospects or returns (if any) contained in the message. Such figures, forecasts, prospects or returns are by their nature subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. The assumptions and parameters used by www.enziovonpfeil.com (evp.com) are not the only ones that might reasonably have been selected and therefore evp.com does not guarantee the sequence, accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the information provided herein. None of evp.com, its members or any of their employees or directors shall be held liable, in any way, for any claims, mistakes, errors or otherwise arising out of or in connection with the content of any form of communication, documentation included in the Blog, via e-mail or any other form of communication.

You are reminded that the content is for personal use and general information only. Under no circumstances is the content intended for and hence the content should not be regarded as an offer or solicitation or recommendation to dispose/sell, an offer or solicitation or recommendation to subscribe in, nor an offer or solicitation or recommendation to buy/acquire and under no circumstances should the content be constituted as provision of any recommendation or investment advice on any securities, investment products, investment arrangements and any other form of investments or legal, tax or other professional advice and therefore should not be relied upon in that regard for making any decision. Unless specifically stated, neither the information nor any opinion contained herein constitutes as an advertisement, an invitation, a solicitation, a recommendation or advice to buy or sell any products, services, securities, futures, options, other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service by evp.com.

Unless stated otherwise, any opinions or views expressed in this communication may not represent those of evp.com. Opinions or views expressed in this communication may differ from those of other departments or third parties, including any opinions or views expressed in any research issued by evp.com.

Any e-mail and any accompanying attachments are not encrypted and cannot be guaranteed to be secure, complete or error-free as electronic communications may be intercepted, corrupted, lost, destroyed, delayed or incomplete, and/or may contain viruses. EvP.com, therefore, does not accept any liability for any interception, corruption, loss, destruction, incompleteness, viruses, errors, omissions or delays in relation to this electronic communication. If verification is required please request a hard-copy version. Electronic communications carried within the evp.com system may be monitored. Any communication or message in email form or otherwise may contain confidential information. Any use, dissemination, distribution or reproduction of the relevant information outside the original recipients of any messages  is strictly prohibited. If you receive a message by mistake, please notify the sender by reply email immediately and permanently delete the emails and its contents. Unless otherwise stated, any communication provided is solely for information purposes only.