Monday, October 10, 2016

China: Weaker RMB and Disparate Fiscal Policy

In the nearer term, China's monetary policy bodes well for markets. In the longer term, her fiscal policy does not.  Softer  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

The Fed: Driving with a rear-view mirror

The Fed is working with an anachronistic model. Keep buying China and America. Deja vu For those (younger) market observers shocked... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 14, 2016

China: why A-shares will get included in the MSCI

We'll join the herd and predict unoriginally that China's A-Share index directly will be included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index (MSCI EMI). T... Read More >>

Thursday, May 19, 2016

Zhang Dejiang in HK; Fed thinking

ZHANG DEJIANG In his keynote speech yesterday at the Belt and Road Summit, National People’s Congress chairman Zhang Dejiang identified ... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: Potential policy blunders

Collateralized debt obligations and Keynesian fiscal expansion are dangerous and misguided. Investment implications. "The Big Short" ... Read More >>

Sunday, March 06, 2016

China: five key policy issues

What are the five key issues demanding discussion at the National People's Congress? Change in leadership style The South China Mor... Read More >>

Friday, January 15, 2016

Hong Kong/China: a political "sell"

Received wisdom is that Pres. Xi Jinping is a hard liner.  What his centralisation means for market regulation and Hong Kong.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Hong Kong: Circuit breakers in June

We all know what havoc China's recent circuit breakers wreaked.  Expect the same for  Hong Kong this June. Investment implication. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China: Why the RMB must fall by at least 10%

The Central Bank is caught in a policy dilemma. It will opt for growth, hence a mushier RMB.   Worse Economic Time® In our ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 09, 2016

China: Worse Economic Time

Currency support worsens China's Economic Time®. Avoid this market for a year.   Monetary economy  convulsions Accordi... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

China: Bloomberg TV interview

Readers know why we have contrarian bets on China. Here is this morning's Bloomberg TV interview on said subject, in which I delve deeper into pol... Read More >>

Sunday, June 21, 2015

China: Why the RMB must soften

We remain  fundamental China optimists. However, with the introduction of QDII2 this year, expect the RMB to soften: good news for exporters. ... Read More >>

Friday, June 12, 2015

China: A-share limbo

Why the inclusion of China's A-shares in the MSCI is in limbo - and what to do about it. Current state.  Already, China accounts for 25.3... Read More >>

Friday, May 29, 2015

China/Hong Kong: buying opportunity

Three reasons why yesterday's China/Hong Kong market cracks represent excellent buying opportunities. What happened.  According to today'... Read More >>