Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Thursday, July 28, 2016

Radio Show: The Fed, the BoJ and PBoC

Investment implications of the newest moves by the Fed and BoJ; why China's shadow banks are less risky than the lenders to SOEs. FED The Fed ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Saturday, February 06, 2016

RMB & HKD: Chinese New Year attacks

This coming Monday - Wednesday, 8th -10th February, expect the RMB and HKD to be attacked. Chinese New Year Being a lunar festival, ... Read More >>

Friday, January 15, 2016

Hong Kong/China: a political "sell"

Received wisdom is that Pres. Xi Jinping is a hard liner.  What his centralisation means for market regulation and Hong Kong.  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Hong Kong: Circuit breakers in June

We all know what havoc China's recent circuit breakers wreaked.  Expect the same for  Hong Kong this June. Investment implication. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China: Why the RMB must fall by at least 10%

The Central Bank is caught in a policy dilemma. It will opt for growth, hence a mushier RMB.   Worse Economic Time® In our ... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

RMB: why a basket case?

On 11th December, Beijing decided to run the RMB against a basket of currencies. Backgrounder and investment implication. Reminders ... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

China & USA: non-mainstream thoughts & investment ideas

China: Surprising noises at the Plenum and at sea .              USA: ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 27, 2015

It's always windy ahead of a weather change!

Here are more thoughts on what really is behind all of this market volatility: it's always windy ahead of a weather change! The Econom... Read More >>

Monday, August 24, 2015

China: (At least) five Renminbi positives

China: (At least) five Renminbi positives The end of the world is NOT nigh just because the RMB skidded briefly by under two per cent last Tuesday... Read More >>

Sunday, August 16, 2015

China: No influence on Fed actions

The press and markets over-rate China’s ability to export deflation – and thus to influence Fed policy. 1.   Much ado ... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 15, 2015

Where are China's markets as well as steel consumption headed? For how long?

Where are China's markets as well as steel consumption headed? For how long? Here is the clip of the July 15th radio show which Enzio von... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Thursday, April 30, 2015

The Economic Clock: China & America

Keep buying both, but overweight China  & Hong Kong. Sector ideas follow. Refreshing the Economic Clock®.  This is designed ... Read More >>

Friday, April 10, 2015

China's Markets: Economic Time set to improve

Why we remain optimistic on China's markets: improving Economic Time® and RMB set to join the SDR  No telling the time by looking at ... Read More >>

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Peoples' Blank of China: Nice try, but...

Lower rates. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) just this Friday: 1) lowered its benchmark one-year lending rate by 40 basis points (bp), to 5.... Read More >>

Friday, November 07, 2014

China: How fiscal policies amplify business cycles

Structural flaws in monetary policy.  Just yesterday we suggested that there are various structural flaws in China's monetary policy, fla... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Bloomberg: Show notes for 23/10, 11:40 AM HK Time

1. Japan outlook those scandals have not exactly enhanced Abe's popularity -Abe must decide by the end of this CY if he wants to increase ... Read More >>

Sunday, September 21, 2014

China's slower growth rate more profitable than you think!

Much ado about nothing.  Many people are worried about the implications of slower Chinese growth.  These implications  are... Read More >>

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Asset Allocation: Third Quarter 2014

Here are some notes prepared for my TV show on Bloomberg and a radio show on Hong Kong's RTHK Investment strategy. Sectors you like/don't like... Read More >>

Monday, May 05, 2014

Why China must ease soon: shadow loans eclipsed by dark pools

Slowdown fomenting unrest.  Just last week we posted a blog(see item 2, "China slowdown, credit risks" on how China's economic slowd... Read More >>

Thursday, April 10, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: Indian Rupee vs Chinese Renminbi

Welfare democracies are out. Just yesterday we suggested that according to our Economic Clock, the dollar is the currency of choice when it co... Read More >>