Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

China and Hong Kong: Why you should sell

 The global Economic Time® is worsening in China and Hong Kong: sell in December and go away. CHINA China is seeking a World Trade Orga... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Friday, November 25, 2016

USA: Why inflation is overrated by the bond market

Inflationary fears are overdone in the bond market. That's why you should buy bonds on dips. Firecrackers The  headlines of 23r... Read More >>

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show: USA: Trump and Markets

Trump's infrastructure spending plans are ineffectual. Why you should buy in to the recent bond market sell-off.in America. US Donald Trump... Read More >>

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Bond Yields: Driven by demography

  The longer we work, the more we save by buying bonds, so yields stay structurally low. Age drives savings  Working w... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Thursday, August 18, 2016

Why low interest rates create low capital investment

Low rates disfigure the market's pricing signals, so many cash-rich dinosaur companies are not investing in the real economy. What to do about th... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Disfigured valuations: you may as well keep buying high yield bonds

  G3 Central Banks have disfigured the market's pricing mechanism to such a degree that talk of "overvaluation" is misplaced: "overvalued" rel... Read More >>

Sunday, August 14, 2016

Bonds: Taper tantrum II, and what to do about it

Why you should buy into any taper tantrum blitz.  Record bond inflows According to  p.13 of this week end's Financial Time... Read More >>

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Global: Low bond yields; China's disparate growth

Low bond yields mean that the ageing population has to save more, so down goes investment. An improved Economic Time in China keeps suggesting a ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

How artificially low interest rates distort growth

  Central Bank buying of bonds artificially depresses their yields. Bad for investors relying on market signals!  Low rates hin... Read More >>