Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Sunday, June 25, 2017

The Fed and the Treasury: Who is boss?

We all know that the Fed is in the business of controlling its mini-rates, the Fed Funds. But with the unwinding of QE, it just could be that the T... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Monday, October 10, 2016

China: Weaker RMB and Disparate Fiscal Policy

In the nearer term, China's monetary policy bodes well for markets. In the longer term, her fiscal policy does not.  Softer  ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Finance: What to be scared of

Don't worry about China's banks; do worry about America's student and car loans! China's banks According to the Bank for Internatio... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Negative rates: why they cannot depress currencies

How come negative interest rates have stopped depressing  their respective currencies? Investment implications. Backgrounder T... Read More >>

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Japan: how to profit from her broken Economic Clock

Japan's politicians and Bank of Japan (BoJ) have broken her Economic Clock®. Crazy investment implication. What a broken clock does ... Read More >>

Saturday, February 06, 2016

RMB & HKD: Chinese New Year attacks

This coming Monday - Wednesday, 8th -10th February, expect the RMB and HKD to be attacked. Chinese New Year Being a lunar festival, ... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 09, 2016

China: Worse Economic Time

Currency support worsens China's Economic Time®. Avoid this market for a year.   Monetary economy  convulsions Accordi... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

RTHK Radio: Europe and seven investment themes

Why you should short the Euro. Seven investment themes, some odd ones, for 2016. 1. The Euro and the European Union For the EU headline the Finla... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

China & USA: non-mainstream thoughts & investment ideas

China: Surprising noises at the Plenum and at sea .              USA: ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Radio Show Notes: Structural forces in China and America

Deflation is a symptom, not a cause!  How to invest. in structural swamps. China We all know of those weak September inflatio... Read More >>

Sunday, September 06, 2015

China: Buy on weakness

Buy China on weakness: you can have slower growth AND a stronger stock market after all! Old advice  We have been recommending... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Friday, June 19, 2015

China: Let's TWIST again

China wants more of its easy money going in to loans. Here is how, and what that means for investing.   Double-barreled strategy.  T... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Friday, May 29, 2015

China/Hong Kong: buying opportunity

Three reasons why yesterday's China/Hong Kong market cracks represent excellent buying opportunities. What happened.  According to today'... Read More >>

Saturday, May 02, 2015

China: More goodies

Another rate cut will be dwarfed by markets' discounting next year's inclusion of China's A-Shares in the MSCI Index China's Economic Ti... Read More >>

Thursday, April 30, 2015

The Economic Clock: China & America

Keep buying both, but overweight China  & Hong Kong. Sector ideas follow. Refreshing the Economic Clock®.  This is designed ... Read More >>

Saturday, April 11, 2015

China's Markets: Four-barrelled good news

Four imminent policy changes will proper China's markets even higher: rate and reserve cuts & two quota increases Economic Time® the t... Read More >>

Friday, April 10, 2015

China's Markets: Economic Time set to improve

Why we remain optimistic on China's markets: improving Economic Time® and RMB set to join the SDR  No telling the time by looking at ... Read More >>

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Peoples' Blank of China: Nice try, but...

Lower rates. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) just this Friday: 1) lowered its benchmark one-year lending rate by 40 basis points (bp), to 5.... Read More >>

Saturday, November 01, 2014

Yen/Dollar: Exporters and sector strategies

Japan's monetary base.  As you know, just this Thursday the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to expand its monetary base by an average 24%, to... Read More >>

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Sunday's stress test results: just how much capital must be raised?

Tomorrow. Just yesterday we released a piece outlining a hitherto pretty disregarded event: the release of the European Central Bank's (ECB's)... Read More >>

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Asset Allocation: Third Quarter 2014

Here are some notes prepared for my TV show on Bloomberg and a radio show on Hong Kong's RTHK Investment strategy. Sectors you like/don't like... Read More >>

Thursday, July 24, 2014

End of QE: Stay long US Treasuries

Low inflation stays. On 2nd June 2014 we issued a missive about why bond yields will hover around the current 2.5% for a some years yet: ... Read More >>

Monday, May 05, 2014

Why China must ease soon: shadow loans eclipsed by dark pools

Slowdown fomenting unrest.  Just last week we posted a blog(see item 2, "China slowdown, credit risks" on how China's economic slowd... Read More >>

Sunday, April 13, 2014

Zhou, Draghi ! A Riddle of Greece vs China

 Oddity. It cannot have escaped the attention of alert readers that while the Greek government bond was over-subscribed, the Chinese gove... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: G3 Currencies

Recently we posited that the reason for market undulations is very much because the G-3's members , are undergoing changes in their respective Econ... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Investment strategy going in to quarter II 2014

 I have compiled this for my show on Bloomberg tomorrow, Wednesday, 2nd April, at 11:40 AM Hong Kong time     Asia-Pacific... Read More >>

Saturday, March 15, 2014

The fallacy of deflation

Nothing much to write about this.    "Inflation is dead". Oh really? Then how come food prices are going through the roof? How come ... Read More >>

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

The Economic Clock: Which sector?

By far, our most popular piece has been our most fundamental one: what the Economic Clock® is, and how to tell the Economic Time® with it w... Read More >>

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

The Smells of Europe's Death Knells: high taxes and high rates

Readers know of my skepticism of that "one size fits all" Euro. I am not sure at all that this Euro has helped German exporters, for instance. What... Read More >>