Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 01, 2016

RMB: Why it must fall further

A weaker RMB is part of China's newer policy. Don't load up.  Financial Times (FT) The front page of today's FT was festooned ... Read More >>

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Radio Show on USA : the Floundering Open Market Committee

Dr Yellen keeps shifting the basis upon which to formulate interest rate policy.  Investment implication.  FOMC  Its ... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 17, 2016

Negative rates: why they cannot depress currencies

How come negative interest rates have stopped depressing  their respective currencies? Investment implications. Backgrounder T... Read More >>

Saturday, January 09, 2016

China: Worse Economic Time

Currency support worsens China's Economic Time®. Avoid this market for a year.   Monetary economy  convulsions Accordi... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Saturday, December 19, 2015

Military: tensions in the China Sea

Sabre-rattling out here is getting noisier. What to do about it. Chinese war games This week, China's military conducted war games ... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Saturday, November 14, 2015

RMB: a secondary SDR member by 30/11/15

What happens if the RMB is included in the SDR basket by the end of November? Investment implications? We all know that the IMF 's main  boar... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

China & USA: non-mainstream thoughts & investment ideas

China: Surprising noises at the Plenum and at sea .              USA: ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Radio Show Notes: Structural forces in China and America

Deflation is a symptom, not a cause!  How to invest. in structural swamps. China We all know of those weak September inflatio... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Infighting in Beijing

There is lots of infighting in Beijing about how to control the economy: just who's in charge, anyway? Here are some wars that will result. Like... Read More >>

Friday, June 05, 2015

Radio Show: The Fed is tightenig already!

The Fed has been tightening for some months by virtue of stopping QE; why Greece is winning the game of chicken, and where to put your money http:/... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 14, 2015

Grexit: game of chicken or Good Riddance?

    Greece prepares to declare default.  What might this mean for markets? Game, set, match. Perhaps presciently on 1s... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Dollar strength: The crunch cometh

    How  exploding debt-servicing could infect global markets    Looming Emerging M... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Swiss Franc: Sell now!

By 1st April, individuals must PAY a tax of 0.75% on their Swiss Franc cash holdings What we got wrong.  On 16th January, we a... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

Exchange rates: why they don't determine trade flows

Multinationals, not exchange rates, drive trade flows! How multinationals influence trade balances.  At its simplest: as Coca-Cola  ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Lower oil defines stronger dollar: why?

Less petro-dollar revenues. Back on 29th November we pixeled a piece, "Dollar: Simple take-aways".  In point two we noted that "...when t... Read More >>

Friday, January 16, 2015

SF/Euro + 53% by June: Swiss Franc +25%; Euro -15%

The Swiss have hastened the demise of the Euro, so the SF rises by 25% and the Euro falls by 15% No review. If you don't know about Thursd... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 02, 2014

Commodities: A supply-side idea

Blues.  Yesterday, the Bloomberg Commodity Index plunged to its lowest since May 2009, i.e. a five-year low. Consequently, the Australian... Read More >>

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Dollar: Simple take-aways

Winners & losers. Recently we wrote a piece identifying winners and losers when it comes to the lower oil price. Dollar & oil.&nbs... Read More >>

Monday, November 10, 2014

Republican victory and the stronger dollar (II)

Hawks will reign: general.  Just shortly after America's mid-terms we issued a missive about why the ever-hawkish Republicans will increa... Read More >>

Thursday, November 06, 2014

USA: Republicans and a stronger dollar

Republican dollar. Given the Republicans' victories, the dollar should strengthen even more than had the Democrats not lost. Congress is b... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Bloomberg: Show notes for 23/10, 11:40 AM HK Time

1. Japan outlook those scandals have not exactly enhanced Abe's popularity -Abe must decide by the end of this CY if he wants to increase ... Read More >>

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Interest rates vs interest rate futures: connecting the dots

Forecasts.  (For the sake of convenience, remember that the Fed instituted its near-zero Fed Funds rates in December 2008.)  &nb... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Steeper US Yield Curve: Investment Implications

Weaker Euro.  We recently suggested that the dollar would rise relative to the Euro. One reason is that US rates will rise relative to th... Read More >>

Thursday, April 10, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: Indian Rupee vs Chinese Renminbi

Welfare democracies are out. Just yesterday we suggested that according to our Economic Clock, the dollar is the currency of choice when it co... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: G3 Currencies

Recently we posited that the reason for market undulations is very much because the G-3's members , are undergoing changes in their respective Econ... Read More >>

Monday, January 13, 2014

Trash Crash II: Those marvellous men in their flying machines

Just last week we warned of a "trash crash" - a lightning bolt out of the blue, one that demolishes the markets febrile, yet complacent market opti... Read More >>

Monday, June 24, 2013

Changing Economic Time®: So, how do I invest now?

How to invest now? We provide strategic (i.e. NOT "timing"/ "tactical" ) asset allocation thoughts concerning which instruments, markets, sectors, ... Read More >>

Monday, December 24, 2012

Strategic Asset Allocation 2013: Unseen storm clouds

Please excuse the lapse in posting my thoughts. Something funny was happening in Cyberspace, no doubt stemming from the Mayan Culture's forecast of... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Why NJA remains a "buy"

For some quarters we have suggested that particularly China's offshore shares are worth looking at. So are Hong Kong's: we are the water-skier at t... Read More >>