Sunday, September 03, 2017

Global: What will cause the crash?

Un-originally, we have forecast a market crash between 4Q17 and 2H18.  Iconoclastically, however, we don't think that the usual causes are rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, August 17, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Tesla Economy

We outline our iconoclastic thoughts re. waning faith in Trump (aka Council resignations), the Fed's repairing a Tesla using a horse buggy manual, ... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Friday, January 20, 2017

Trump: So who will be the Apprentice?

So who will be teaching whom as of today in America?  Who gets fired first?  Inertia Trump will run the country like he ra... Read More >>

Sunday, January 08, 2017

China:Definitely a worse Economic Time

Get out and stay out of China and her satellite markets!  Wilting RMB Back on 20th December 2016 we advised that the evidence-b... Read More >>

Thursday, December 08, 2016

Radio Show: Why you should look to sell China & Hong Kong

 Start planning to sell both markets: China's Economic Time® is worsening, as is Hong Kong's.   CHINA FX RESERVES China’s f... Read More >>

Friday, November 25, 2016

USA: Why inflation is overrated by the bond market

Inflationary fears are overdone in the bond market. That's why you should buy bonds on dips. Firecrackers The  headlines of 23r... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, October 06, 2016

Radio Show: Where the IMF is erring

 The IMF just lambasted Central Banks for blocking world growth. We think it's the corrupt politicians who thrive on "Moneyocracy".  Bank... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Disfigured valuations: you may as well keep buying high yield bonds

  G3 Central Banks have disfigured the market's pricing mechanism to such a degree that talk of "overvaluation" is misplaced: "overvalued" rel... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Thursday, May 26, 2016

Currencies, the US stock market, & Greece

A rising US stock market will keep propelling the dollar; the opposite holds true for the RMB. US DOLLAR The surging US dollar is having ripples ... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Friday, May 06, 2016

2016-2035: U.S. real stock & bond returns

What will U.S. stocks and bonds return over the next 20 years?  Source Just this May, i.e. now , McKinsey and Company released ... Read More >>

Thursday, April 28, 2016

Central Banks: policy contradictions

What both banks pretend to be targeting in terms of inflation is contradicted by their actions. Investment implications.  Inflation... Read More >>

Thursday, March 31, 2016

Radio Show on USA : the Floundering Open Market Committee

Dr Yellen keeps shifting the basis upon which to formulate interest rate policy.  Investment implication.  FOMC  Its ... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

USA: reinvention reflects profitable resilience

We all know about that February jobs report. What about its deeper meaning for investors? February data. Private-sector payrolls as well as wa... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: Potential policy blunders

Collateralized debt obligations and Keynesian fiscal expansion are dangerous and misguided. Investment implications. "The Big Short" ... Read More >>

Thursday, February 11, 2016

America's Fed: shifting sands

On 10th February, Dr Yellen re-emphasized just how much she shifts the sand and thus prevaricates... China's centrality In her state... Read More >>

Monday, February 01, 2016

Radio Interview: Flawed Japanese monetary policy

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is doing more of the same - yet hoping for a different result? Is this crazy or just plain sick?  Crazy investment im... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

Hong Kong: Circuit breakers in June

We all know what havoc China's recent circuit breakers wreaked.  Expect the same for  Hong Kong this June. Investment implication. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

China: Why the RMB must fall by at least 10%

The Central Bank is caught in a policy dilemma. It will opt for growth, hence a mushier RMB.   Worse Economic Time® In our ... Read More >>

Saturday, January 09, 2016

China: Worse Economic Time

Currency support worsens China's Economic Time®. Avoid this market for a year.   Monetary economy  convulsions Accordi... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 01, 2015

Abenomics: Chasing elephants with three pop guns

The Japanese ocean liner keeps sinking in the mire of vested interests; new "arrows" are blunt Gross depressed product A couple of w... Read More >>

Sunday, September 06, 2015

China: Buy on weakness

Buy China on weakness: you can have slower growth AND a stronger stock market after all! Old advice  We have been recommending... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 01, 2015

China: Bloomberg TV interview

Readers know why we have contrarian bets on China. Here is this morning's Bloomberg TV interview on said subject, in which I delve deeper into pol... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece and Germany: Profitable paradox

Greece and Germany: Profitable  paradox In each case, the  conservatives are playing OPPOSITE roles. How to profit off this bifurcation... Read More >>