Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Sunday, September 06, 2015

China: Buy on weakness

Buy China on weakness: you can have slower growth AND a stronger stock market after all! Old advice  We have been recommending... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Japan: Gross Depressed Product

Japan: Gross Depressed Product Monetary easing is as ineffectual to reforming Japan's economy as bombing ISIS is to eradicating terrorism. Abe&rs... Read More >>

Friday, August 07, 2015

Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September

Here is the recording of today's radio interview: Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September Better US Economic Time.... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Roadmaps: Grexit and a crash this Fall

Here is how much Greece must pay whom and by when, followed by an overall roadmap for that market tumble this Fall. Greece's  payment de... Read More >>

Saturday, April 11, 2015

China's Markets: Four-barrelled good news

Four imminent policy changes will proper China's markets even higher: rate and reserve cuts & two quota increases Economic Time® the t... Read More >>

Friday, March 20, 2015

FOMC: Connecting the dots

Forget demand-driven inflation; worry about debt inflation in the Submerging Markets Dot plots. We won't bother re-phrasing the Financial Time... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Dollar strength: The crunch cometh

    How  exploding debt-servicing could infect global markets    Looming Emerging M... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

USA: Yellen Tantrum

Even though the Fed probably will raise rates by September, we do NOT foresee life-threatening inflation, so real rates rise. However, we do forese... Read More >>

Saturday, January 17, 2015

Video Clip: Interview with Asia Asset

Here is a clip of my recent video interview with Asia Asset: http://www.asiaasset.com/0115_video_pcl.aspx Read More >>

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Submerging Markets Crises: Exit strategies

Bank for International Settlements.  The BIS has been warning of another submerging markets crisis since is Quarterly Review of this Sept... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Submerging markets' worsening Economic Time

Take-aways.  On 29th November we released pixels  arguing that a) a weaker oil prices drives up the dollar and b) a stronger do... Read More >>

Thursday, November 06, 2014

USA: Republicans and a stronger dollar

Republican dollar. Given the Republicans' victories, the dollar should strengthen even more than had the Democrats not lost. Congress is b... Read More >>

Friday, October 31, 2014

US market: buying made easy

Good reasons to buy. Just yesterday we suggested that the UIS market remains attractive: people will want to load-up on the dollar, thereby in... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

China: "New normal" growth rates not abnormal

Etymology.   "New normal" was penned originally by Bill Gross, I believe. "Abnormal" stems from Latin: ab ("off, away from") and nor... Read More >>

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Interest rates vs interest rate futures: connecting the dots

Forecasts.  (For the sake of convenience, remember that the Fed instituted its near-zero Fed Funds rates in December 2008.)  &nb... Read More >>

Sunday, September 21, 2014

China's slower growth rate more profitable than you think!

Much ado about nothing.  Many people are worried about the implications of slower Chinese growth.  These implications  are... Read More >>

Thursday, July 24, 2014

End of QE: Stay long US Treasuries

Low inflation stays. On 2nd June 2014 we issued a missive about why bond yields will hover around the current 2.5% for a some years yet: ... Read More >>

Saturday, June 14, 2014

China: More than a change in Economic Time: go long

Short Europe. Just a couple of days ago we released a scathing piece about why you should short Europe: her politicians are refusing to enact ... Read More >>

Monday, June 02, 2014

Bond yields and income inequality

Stronger inflation. The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is the price index for personal consumption expenditure (PCE).  It rose by a... Read More >>

Monday, May 05, 2014

Why China must ease soon: shadow loans eclipsed by dark pools

Slowdown fomenting unrest.  Just last week we posted a blog(see item 2, "China slowdown, credit risks" on how China's economic slowd... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: G3 Currencies

Recently we posited that the reason for market undulations is very much because the G-3's members , are undergoing changes in their respective Econ... Read More >>

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Europe has voted itself out of a business cycle

Rocketing prices.  On 15th and 21st March we suggested the myth of deflation. If anything, cost-push inflation is alive and kicking. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

The Economic Clock: Which sector?

By far, our most popular piece has been our most fundamental one: what the Economic Clock® is, and how to tell the Economic Time® with it w... Read More >>

Monday, February 10, 2014

What the Economic Clock says about America

A good half year ago, I penned the following: "The last two big re-sets (tightenings) in America's Economic Clock® were announced on 4th Februa... Read More >>

Sunday, January 19, 2014

Why deflation matters

No points for originality, but I thought this op ed in this week end's Financial Times, p. 8, useful: "  Deflation carries two equally signifi... Read More >>

Monday, June 24, 2013

Changing Economic Time®: So, how do I invest now?

How to invest now? We provide strategic (i.e. NOT "timing"/ "tactical" ) asset allocation thoughts concerning which instruments, markets, sectors, ... Read More >>

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Japan: Morbidnomics

Here are the notes that I created for my Bloomberg "Asia Edge" TV show yesterday, 11th June, at 11:40 AM here in Hong Kong:  1. The BOJ will a... Read More >>

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Bernanke & The Economic Clock

You all know what happened: just before releasing the minutes of the  last FOMC meeting, Prof. Bernanke spoke to the Joint Economic Committee ... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

China, Japan & Europe: Strategic "Avoids"

Tomorrow I will be on Bloomberg TV at 11:40 AM Hong Kong time.  Here are some thoughts that I will share  on the three subjects highlight... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Gold: Keep your insurance policy!

In our  previous blog on gold, "In gold we trust" (6th December 2012), I obviously could  not foresee Monday's plunge... Read More >>

Monday, April 08, 2013

Japan & Portugal: one mean denominator

As you know, two major economic events occurred last week.  We will not repeat the minutiae of each event, instead focusing on their investmen... Read More >>

Monday, March 25, 2013

Cyprus: Nirvana or false dawn? This marriage is worsening

We needn't review the package agreed to in Brussels. You have that already. This "deal" and market exhuberance probably is just  another false... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Cyprus: Just a bad marriage or insidious family violence?

Back on 7th February I penned:   "Regardless of what ECB Boss Draghi says today: he only can provide a fig leaf behind which these politi... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 12, 2013

China: how to invest during stagflation

No doubt you all have read about China's more recent data that has disappointed the market: Industrial production rose "only" 9.9% in the firs... Read More >>

Thursday, March 07, 2013

Sequestration Dining

Pres. Obama finally is coming around to the notion that he actually  has to talk with his foes in Congress - instead of just going above every... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Collateral transformation: Wall Street's newest hoax

Etymologically, "hoax" is derived from "hocus-pocus". It, in turn, has some roots in the name ascribed to magicians and jugglers in ... Read More >>