Monday, October 09, 2017

What will trigger the next market crash?

We read the Financial Times and Economist regularly as part of our intellectual diet.  Both carried articles this week about the non-likelihoo... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Saturday, October 29, 2016

Bond Yields: Driven by demography

  The longer we work, the more we save by buying bonds, so yields stay structurally low. Age drives savings  Working w... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

USA: reinvention reflects profitable resilience

We all know about that February jobs report. What about its deeper meaning for investors? February data. Private-sector payrolls as well as wa... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

China: Potential policy blunders

Collateralized debt obligations and Keynesian fiscal expansion are dangerous and misguided. Investment implications. "The Big Short" ... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

RTHK Radio: Europe and seven investment themes

Why you should short the Euro. Seven investment themes, some odd ones, for 2016. 1. The Euro and the European Union For the EU headline the Finla... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 28, 2015

China & USA: non-mainstream thoughts & investment ideas

China: Surprising noises at the Plenum and at sea .              USA: ... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Friday, August 07, 2015

Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September

Here is the recording of today's radio interview: Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September Better US Economic Time.... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Saturday, November 08, 2014

Lower oil = a tax cut. Winners & losers

 A tax cut. Since June, oil's price has dropped by a quarter. See this as a tax cut that benefits oil consumers. This means that next to ... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Where to invest: US, China, Japan & Defense

1. Fed meeting, US economy, forward guidance etc a. Keynes cannot work in post-democracies: locals don’t want to build roads and bridges! b... Read More >>

Thursday, April 10, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: Indian Rupee vs Chinese Renminbi

Welfare democracies are out. Just yesterday we suggested that according to our Economic Clock, the dollar is the currency of choice when it co... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 09, 2014

What the Economic Clock Says: G3 Currencies

Recently we posited that the reason for market undulations is very much because the G-3's members , are undergoing changes in their respective Econ... Read More >>

Tuesday, April 01, 2014

Investment strategy going in to quarter II 2014

 I have compiled this for my show on Bloomberg tomorrow, Wednesday, 2nd April, at 11:40 AM Hong Kong time     Asia-Pacific... Read More >>

Thursday, March 27, 2014

Worsening Economic Time

1. Recently we pontificated about China's state-owned banks, arguing that once  they do get exposed to the cutting winds of competition, ... Read More >>

Friday, March 21, 2014

What's good about Fed policies

 Markets' nose-dive. As we all know, markets nose-dived yesterday because Pres. Yellen said that labour markets would tighten sooner than... Read More >>

Monday, February 10, 2014

What the Economic Clock says about America

A good half year ago, I penned the following: "The last two big re-sets (tightenings) in America's Economic Clock® were announced on 4th Februa... Read More >>

Monday, June 24, 2013

Changing Economic Time®: So, how do I invest now?

How to invest now? We provide strategic (i.e. NOT "timing"/ "tactical" ) asset allocation thoughts concerning which instruments, markets, sectors, ... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 05, 2012

ECB: Into the dog house, where appeasement reigns

These are some acerbic notes that I have made for my Bloomberg TV interview here in HK today at 12:10 noon.  -     &... Read More >>

Friday, June 08, 2012

China: Why more easing spells a “sell” on banks

By now, most asset allocators will be aware that China's Central Bank, the People's Bank of China (PBoC),  eased monetary policy (again) yeste... Read More >>