Thursday, August 03, 2017

RTHK Show Notes: soggy dollar repeating history

Despite America's  Treasuries yielding more than the Europeans' or Japanese', the dollar remains soggy.   But it has been since kickoff i... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Sunday, June 18, 2017

USA & China: Mini Super-Tuesday

This Tuesday will reveal whether Georgia will elect a Democrat congresswoman AND whether the MSCI will embrace  China’s A shares.  ... Read More >>

Friday, December 16, 2016

USA & China: Risks of a change in Economic Time

America's Economic Time® keeps improving; China's keeps worsening. America's Economic Time®.  For the past year, America's Econom... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

China and Hong Kong: Why you should sell

 The global Economic Time® is worsening in China and Hong Kong: sell in December and go away. CHINA China is seeking a World Trade Orga... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, September 01, 2016

Radio Show: The RMB and the Hang Seng Index

  A rising Fed Funds rate will depress the RMB, further propelling our Hong Kong stock market. HONG KONG STOCKS Hong Kong has ended the m... Read More >>

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Markets: keep buying China and America

Keep buying China/Hong Kong  and America/the dollar; history stopped being a guide  as of 2010.  1.  Why the Chinese  fis... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

RTHK Radio: Europe and seven investment themes

Why you should short the Euro. Seven investment themes, some odd ones, for 2016. 1. The Euro and the European Union For the EU headline the Finla... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Friday, August 07, 2015

Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September

Here is the recording of today's radio interview: Asset allocation in light of Fed Funds hike this September Better US Economic Time.... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Saturday, May 23, 2015

Hong Kong/China: two lucrative Schemes

The Mutual Recognition Scheme , coupled with the  Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect Scheme , will  earn you lots of mo... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

China: a profitable June looms

This June, both the MSCI and probably the IMF will announce inclusion of China in their respective  baskets. Keep buying. Promising signs... Read More >>

Saturday, May 02, 2015

China: More goodies

Another rate cut will be dwarfed by markets' discounting next year's inclusion of China's A-Shares in the MSCI Index China's Economic Ti... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Bloomberg TV Show: Singapore, the dollar and China

My Bloomberg TV show of this morning on Singapore's looming issues, the rising dollar and healing China http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-0... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Brussels and Minsk: Tales of two cities

Brussels: plus ca la meme chose.  Current negotiations between Greece and the Troika are just a game of chicken: who will cl... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

China's January prices: Does inflation equal demand?

Globalisation means stronger growth AND lower inflation. The resulting excess supply of money bodes well for asset markets. January inflation.... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

June outlook:cheap gold in the mush of 1H15

Our coverage of oil.  More recently,  we have issued four blogs on this slippery subject. In the first piece  on 8th ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 23, 2014

China: Xi will pursue more graft than growth in 2015

Money can't help. in mid-November we issued a missive on how China's small- and medium-sized enterprises cannot be helped by official brandish... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Submerging markets' worsening Economic Time

Take-aways.  On 29th November we released pixels  arguing that a) a weaker oil prices drives up the dollar and b) a stronger do... Read More >>

Saturday, November 08, 2014

Lower oil = a tax cut. Winners & losers

 A tax cut. Since June, oil's price has dropped by a quarter. See this as a tax cut that benefits oil consumers. This means that next to ... Read More >>

Saturday, November 01, 2014

Yen/Dollar: Exporters and sector strategies

Japan's monetary base.  As you know, just this Thursday the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decided to expand its monetary base by an average 24%, to... Read More >>

Friday, October 24, 2014

Sunday ALERT: ECB's stress tests released

 Aberration. Our readers know that I work on about a six-month time horizon, so today's note is an aberration in that we are discussing s... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Bloomberg: Show notes for 23/10, 11:40 AM HK Time

1. Japan outlook those scandals have not exactly enhanced Abe's popularity -Abe must decide by the end of this CY if he wants to increase ... Read More >>

Wednesday, October 22, 2014

China: "New normal" growth rates not abnormal

Etymology.   "New normal" was penned originally by Bill Gross, I believe. "Abnormal" stems from Latin: ab ("off, away from") and nor... Read More >>

Sunday, September 21, 2014

Interest rates vs interest rate futures: connecting the dots

Forecasts.  (For the sake of convenience, remember that the Fed instituted its near-zero Fed Funds rates in December 2008.)  &nb... Read More >>

Sunday, September 21, 2014

China's slower growth rate more profitable than you think!

Much ado about nothing.  Many people are worried about the implications of slower Chinese growth.  These implications  are... Read More >>

Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Steeper US Yield Curve: Investment Implications

Weaker Euro.  We recently suggested that the dollar would rise relative to the Euro. One reason is that US rates will rise relative to th... Read More >>

Tuesday, August 05, 2014

Asset Allocation: Third Quarter 2014

Here are some notes prepared for my TV show on Bloomberg and a radio show on Hong Kong's RTHK Investment strategy. Sectors you like/don't like... Read More >>

Thursday, July 24, 2014

End of QE: Stay long US Treasuries

Low inflation stays. On 2nd June 2014 we issued a missive about why bond yields will hover around the current 2.5% for a some years yet: ... Read More >>

Friday, July 11, 2014

Money Market Funds: Caveat emptor

 The theory. We all know what money market funds (MMFs) are supposed to be made of: conservatively-invested cash. The reality. But th... Read More >>