Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Bloomberg TV: the Fed and Horse Buggy Repair Manuals

All central banks are trying to move forward by squinting into their rear-view mirrors. Market implications. Fed preview: decision due the... Read More >>

Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Retail sales: clicks instead of bricks

Just who does NOT shop online?  Ever thought about what this means for growth in an economy and for Fed policy? 22ND JULY '17: WE HAVE ADDED S... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Sunday, June 18, 2017

USA & China: Mini Super-Tuesday

This Tuesday will reveal whether Georgia will elect a Democrat congresswoman AND whether the MSCI will embrace  China’s A shares.  ... Read More >>

Thursday, June 01, 2017

USA: Worsening Economic Time as of 2H18

Based on their anachronistic thinking about inflation, the Fed will overshoot when raising rates. That will choke the economy. When do markets star... Read More >>

Thursday, February 02, 2017

USA: The Fed and long bond yields

Even though the Fed won't raise short rates until mid-June, watch the long end of the curve! U.S.  The Fed has left interest rates on hold. ... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Friday, December 16, 2016

USA & China: Risks of a change in Economic Time

America's Economic Time® keeps improving; China's keeps worsening. America's Economic Time®.  For the past year, America's Econom... Read More >>

Monday, November 28, 2016

USA: Reflation = "trickle-out" economics

Markets have been gyrating very much because of Trump's reflation plans. But they will trickle out overseas. Forthcoming policy mix ... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Thursday, June 02, 2016

US, China, Japan & Viet Nam

Buy America and Viet Nam; sell China, Hong Kong and Japan  US ECONOMIC DATA US manufacturing has expanded for the third consecutive month... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Monday, March 07, 2016

USA: reinvention reflects profitable resilience

We all know about that February jobs report. What about its deeper meaning for investors? February data. Private-sector payrolls as well as wa... Read More >>

Sunday, February 28, 2016

Random Ideas: buy global defence and American transport shares

Two sectors deserving your investing  scrutiny. Defence Has it struck you that whilst global economic and thus earnings gr... Read More >>

Thursday, February 18, 2016

Radio Show: FOMC's Shifting sands - continued

The Fed exacerbates market volatility by constantly shifting the goal posts. Investment implication. China Just a couple of days ... Read More >>

Thursday, February 11, 2016

America's Fed: shifting sands

On 10th February, Dr Yellen re-emphasized just how much she shifts the sand and thus prevaricates... China's centrality In her state... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 07, 2016

RTHK: China & America markets

Chinese and American economic data are tenuous. Investment implications.  CHINA PMI New economic data shows that the services sector in C... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Sunday, October 04, 2015

USA: Earnings vs The Economic Clock

"...earnings releases ...could move markets more than the Fed." (Howard Silberblat, S&P Dow Jones Indices) Diminished expectations ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Thursday, April 30, 2015

The Economic Clock: China & America

Keep buying both, but overweight China  & Hong Kong. Sector ideas follow. Refreshing the Economic Clock®.  This is designed ... Read More >>

Friday, March 20, 2015

FOMC: Connecting the dots

Forget demand-driven inflation; worry about debt inflation in the Submerging Markets Dot plots. We won't bother re-phrasing the Financial Time... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

USA: Yellen Tantrum

Even though the Fed probably will raise rates by September, we do NOT foresee life-threatening inflation, so real rates rise. However, we do forese... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Brussels and Minsk: Tales of two cities

Brussels: plus ca la meme chose.  Current negotiations between Greece and the Troika are just a game of chicken: who will cl... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

June outlook:cheap gold in the mush of 1H15

Our coverage of oil.  More recently,  we have issued four blogs on this slippery subject. In the first piece  on 8th ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 09, 2014

Submerging markets' worsening Economic Time

Take-aways.  On 29th November we released pixels  arguing that a) a weaker oil prices drives up the dollar and b) a stronger do... Read More >>

Monday, November 10, 2014

Republican victory and the stronger dollar (II)

Hawks will reign: general.  Just shortly after America's mid-terms we issued a missive about why the ever-hawkish Republicans will increa... Read More >>

Thursday, November 06, 2014

USA: Republicans and a stronger dollar

Republican dollar. Given the Republicans' victories, the dollar should strengthen even more than had the Democrats not lost. Congress is b... Read More >>