Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Repairing a Tesla with a horse-buggy manual

Central bankers are fighting yesteryears' wars: inflation bouts.  They run the risk of making severe policy mistakes which could trigger a mar... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 03, 2016

Radio Show: the Fed, Europe and Hong Kong

  FED In its last policy decision before the US election, the US Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. However, the monetary... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, September 08, 2016

Radio Show: USA and EU

Why we get mixed signals from America's economy - and terrible vibes off Brussels' Diktats.  USA The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book re... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Monday, July 04, 2016

Asset Allocation: Brussels fudge and Hong Kong's stale noodles

 Why you should underweight Europe and Hong Kong. 1.  Dominoes falling in Europe - where else might follow? Political as well as r... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Thursday, June 23, 2016

BREXIT: investment implications & podcast

Talked to death already, we offer a couple of investment implications. Shouldn't the "BR" stand for Brussels? My position For w... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Economic Clock: where are we in the cycle?

We reveal what our Economic Clock is telling us - and, thus, how to invest. The Economic Clock Readers know that we have been runnin... Read More >>

Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Europe: why monetary stimuli cannot work

The ECB is chasing elephants with a pop gun. Investment implication.   Missing the point On 10th March we suggested that chasin... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 30, 2015

RMB: why a basket case?

On 11th December, Beijing decided to run the RMB against a basket of currencies. Backgrounder and investment implication. Reminders ... Read More >>

Wednesday, December 23, 2015

RTHK Radio: Europe and seven investment themes

Why you should short the Euro. Seven investment themes, some odd ones, for 2016. 1. The Euro and the European Union For the EU headline the Finla... Read More >>

Thursday, December 03, 2015

China & HK residential property

My notes for a RTHK radio show today. Deflation in Europe; property issues in China and Hong Kong; the RMB as part of the SDR.  Investment im... Read More >>

Wednesday, November 25, 2015

2016: why we are optimistic

The Economic Time is good for stock markets next year, counter-intuitive as this seems... Here are my sketches for a forthcoming Bloomberg radio ... Read More >>

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Bloomberg Show: China, Japan & the Fed

Why you should be buying into weakness: China, Japan and America. Yesterday's Bloomberg TV shows. CHINA: earnings-driven "buy" Shrin... Read More >>

Wednesday, September 02, 2015

Wall Street is on sale: Radio Show

Wall Street is on sale, so "don't do something - stand there"! Here are my abbreviated speaking notes, along with the interview's clip. ... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Greece and Germany: Profitable paradox

Greece and Germany: Profitable  paradox In each case, the  conservatives are playing OPPOSITE roles. How to profit off this bifurcation... Read More >>

Friday, August 21, 2015

Push for reforms, consumption, productivity growth key to Asia’s future

Enzio von Pfeil is interviewed by The Edge Singapore and outlines why the push for reforms, consumption and productivity growth are key to Asia&r... Read More >>

Friday, July 10, 2015

China and Europe are on sale: load-up!

Chinese caving-in The market upturn was predictable; expect more Central Bank easing. Europeans caving-in Tsipras is w... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Friday, June 05, 2015

Radio Show: The Fed is tightenig already!

The Fed has been tightening for some months by virtue of stopping QE; why Greece is winning the game of chicken, and where to put your money http:/... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 02, 2015

Rates, Earnings and The Economic Clock in structural slumps

What is the Economic Clock revealing about market direction in the US, China/Hong Kong & Europe? Asset allocation.  Keep overweightin... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Friday, May 08, 2015

Greece: she wins game of chicken by 29/5

"GR" in Grexit should stand  for "Good Riddance". Yet another roadmap to oblivion. The Greeks keep winning this game of chicken!   T... Read More >>

Saturday, April 11, 2015

China's Markets: Four-barrelled good news

Four imminent policy changes will proper China's markets even higher: rate and reserve cuts & two quota increases Economic Time® the t... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 01, 2015

Grexit: potential dangers thereof

Whilst we do not foresee Grexit, it's best to beware of its consequences Game of chicken. This February we wrote that this whole Grexit m... Read More >>

Friday, March 20, 2015

FOMC: Connecting the dots

Forget demand-driven inflation; worry about debt inflation in the Submerging Markets Dot plots. We won't bother re-phrasing the Financial Time... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Friday, March 06, 2015

China's growth model evolving

Self-flagellation. Just yesterday, Premier Li Keqiang castigated his own government for all of the flaws which it is making in the growth depa... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

Brussels and Minsk: Tales of two cities

Brussels: plus ca la meme chose.  Current negotiations between Greece and the Troika are just a game of chicken: who will cl... Read More >>

Monday, January 26, 2015

Greek elections: plus ca meme chose

Tactical volte face.  Readers know that just this Friday, 23rd January, we caved-in to the market reality stronger European bourses, cour... Read More >>

Friday, January 23, 2015

Tactical volte face: go long Europe

Structurally bearish on Europe.  Readers know of my distaste for European politicians: they won't reform their economies, and can get awa... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 06, 2015

June outlook:cheap gold in the mush of 1H15

Our coverage of oil.  More recently,  we have issued four blogs on this slippery subject. In the first piece  on 8th ... Read More >>

Saturday, October 25, 2014

Sunday's stress test results: just how much capital must be raised?

Tomorrow. Just yesterday we released a piece outlining a hitherto pretty disregarded event: the release of the European Central Bank's (ECB's)... Read More >>

Friday, October 24, 2014

Sunday ALERT: ECB's stress tests released

 Aberration. Our readers know that I work on about a six-month time horizon, so today's note is an aberration in that we are discussing s... Read More >>