Thursday, October 12, 2017

Hong Kong:Carrie Lam's Maiden Policy Address

The Policy Address of Carrie Lam, our Chief Executive,. was long on detail - but short on vision. 1.   Our overall observations a. ... Read More >>

Monday, October 09, 2017

What will trigger the next market crash?

We read the Financial Times and Economist regularly as part of our intellectual diet.  Both carried articles this week about the non-likelihoo... Read More >>

Thursday, September 07, 2017

Radio Show Notes: Fischer, ECB, dollar, gold & Chinese markets

A random walk. We are very worried about Prof. Fischer resigning. Expect more ECB garble. The dollar remains soft whilst Euro-yields rise. Gold ris... Read More >>

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Radio Show Notes: US GDP/ H Harvey and No Tax Reform

Many think that US growth momentum is rising; we think that it is losing steam at the margin. Hurricane Harvey's economic effects are like those of... Read More >>

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Radio Show Notes: The Economic Clock explains markets

Readers know that we have run the framework of The Economic Clock® for years.  Robustly, it continues explaining market trends. My overa... Read More >>

Tuesday, July 04, 2017

The Fallible Fed: 50+ years of policy "wrongness"

Those "experts"at the Fed are no better than "Joe Sixpack" at forecasting - but they are more powerful.  What follows are 50 years of  po... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

The Economic Time and Your Investing

Here are the notes to an investment  speech which I gave on 9th June here in Hong Kong: the Economic Clock®, social unrest, defence and ed... Read More >>

Thursday, June 08, 2017

Thoughts on Super Thursday

SUPER THURSDAY -Notes for today’s RTHK radio show, Hong Kong: UK election, ECB and Comey's testimony- 1. UK ELECTION a. Here are my observati... Read More >>

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Trump: Just what is an "Executive Order"?

Since Trump took the helm, he has issued at least four Executive Orders.  Based on his personality,  he will continue ruling s... Read More >>

Thursday, January 26, 2017

USA: Trump honeymoon over yet?

Since Trump's November victory, the Dow has surged nine per cent. Quo vadis?  The Dow Jones Industrial Average has crossed the 20,000 lev... Read More >>

Tuesday, January 24, 2017

1Q17: What to buy and sell

What to go long of and what to short this quarter  Top 3 investment tips/themes (e.g. sell the yen, avoid oil) -    ... Read More >>

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

China and Hong Kong: Why you should sell

 The global Economic Time® is worsening in China and Hong Kong: sell in December and go away. CHINA China is seeking a World Trade Orga... Read More >>

Thursday, December 01, 2016

Radio Show: America's good Economic Time

Why you should be buying American stocks and bonds. US In a series of tweets overnight, US President-elect Donald Trump has said he will be ... Read More >>

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Radio Show: USA: Trump and Markets

Trump's infrastructure spending plans are ineffectual. Why you should buy in to the recent bond market sell-off.in America. US Donald Trump... Read More >>

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Radio Show: Trump's "America first" during gridlock

How can Trump progress with his "America first" policy by angering Congress and foreign governments? THE ECONOMY Mr Trump has promised to dou... Read More >>

Monday, November 07, 2016

USA:Gridlock propels rates, the dollar and the stock market

Many wonder who will make more of an impact: Trump of Clinton? None: gridlock will reign- as will the dollar. Nobody can rule For t... Read More >>

Thursday, October 27, 2016

G-3 Radio Show: Interest rates and earnings

Fed funds will rise 13th-14 December. Why to buy bonds on price weakness. US corporate earnings set to improve. 1.  G-3 INTEREST RATES... Read More >>

Thursday, August 11, 2016

Global: Low bond yields; China's disparate growth

Low bond yields mean that the ageing population has to save more, so down goes investment. An improved Economic Time in China keeps suggesting a ... Read More >>

Thursday, August 04, 2016

Market Outlook: August - December 2016

Global Economic Time is stabilizing: buy the G3 plus Greater China What are your top 3 investment ideas?  -     &... Read More >>

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Economic Clock: Where are we in the cycle?

Our only change is that now, you should start buying China and thus Hong Kong. What we wrote in April Just this April we issued a pi... Read More >>

Friday, July 01, 2016

BREXIT: anything really changed?

BREXIT is a traders' paradise, nothing more. Investment implications. Here are my talking points for a Bloomberg HK TV show of 1st July 2016, 11:... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 07, 2016

Where markets are headed

 Rate rises in America won't influence Hong Kong, whose Economic Time is miserable.   1.  is a weaker jobs report a green light for... Read More >>

Saturday, June 04, 2016

Is the Fed Funds hike akin to Japan's VAT increase?

Is the much-traded-about Fed Funds hike akin to the much-traded-about Japanese VAT increase?  Why markets are so peripatetic. Investment imp... Read More >>

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

How low interest rates STYMIE growth

Low rates kill growth from a consumption as well as an investment angle. Conventional wisdom Textbooks tell us that low interest rat... Read More >>

Friday, May 06, 2016

2016-2035: U.S. real stock & bond returns

What will U.S. stocks and bonds return over the next 20 years?  Source Just this May, i.e. now , McKinsey and Company released ... Read More >>

Thursday, March 17, 2016

Radio Show: the Floundering Open Market Committee

Given recent statements, the "F" in the FOMC deserves "Floundering".  "Paroles" in  China. Investment implications. Here is w... Read More >>

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Global Radio Show: ECB, China and Economic Time

Radio interview : the folly of the ECB's policies; China growth and global markets. ECB  The ECB’s governing council is set to hold a m... Read More >>

Friday, January 22, 2016

Bloomberg Show: Investment Strategies

How not to/ to invest your money: losers and winners on a national and sectoral level. Market Outlook  is the market rout over? Have we seen ... Read More >>

Thursday, January 07, 2016

RTHK: China & America markets

Chinese and American economic data are tenuous. Investment implications.  CHINA PMI New economic data shows that the services sector in C... Read More >>

Monday, January 04, 2016

USA/Global: why rising rates smell

There are four identifiable risks to rising US rates - but not necessarily the ones that you probably are thinking of. How to make money off these... Read More >>

Thursday, December 10, 2015

Market strategies for 2015 and 2016

1. Market outlook for rest of the year; expectations for 2016; what were the main surprises in 2015? Expect a dive on 16th Dec when the Fed a... Read More >>

Monday, November 09, 2015

Fed policy: two longs and three shorts

Which bonds to buy if rates rise? Fed leadership vacuum Just last week we railed against Dr. Yellen: we just don't know what this tw... Read More >>

Thursday, October 22, 2015

US: Debt limit jabs intensify - II

The gloves are off on the Hill.  How to make money off this. http://podcast.rthk.hk/podcast/item_epi.php?pid=922 Why 3rd November is so ... Read More >>

Monday, October 19, 2015

USA: Debt limit tussle threatens markets on 3rd November

The US government runs out of money on Tuesday, 3rd November.  That will convulse markets. Caveat emptor!   Debt limit deadline 3rd ... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 16, 2015

Athens' chimerical debt repayment schedule

Academic as it sounds, here is Athens' repayment road map. She won't repay AND she stays in the Club!  "Chicken".  At least since 8th May... Read More >>

Tuesday, June 09, 2015

America's Economic Clock: Rates up and markets - first - down

America's Economic Time is improving; that is why we expect a rate hike as of September. On average , the market has fallen peripatetically &n... Read More >>

Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Bloomberg TV: USA, Japan and Greece

My Bloomberg TV shows on why the Fed will raise rates in September, that Japan's growth recovery is a myth and that Greece is playing a game of chi... Read More >>

Friday, May 22, 2015

Global: where do I put my money?

Why you must go with the flow - and where. These are my notes for a Bloomberg TV show this Monday, 25th May 2015, 11:00 - 11:50 AM, Hong Kong time:... Read More >>

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Roadmaps: Grexit and a crash this Fall

Here is how much Greece must pay whom and by when, followed by an overall roadmap for that market tumble this Fall. Greece's  payment de... Read More >>

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Bloomberg TV Show: Singapore, the dollar and China

My Bloomberg TV show of this morning on Singapore's looming issues, the rising dollar and healing China http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-0... Read More >>

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Yellen heralds better Economic Time

So what crisis looms? A 1937-style convulsion or one predicated on avaricious currency mismatching? Good change to Economic Time®.  S... Read More >>

Thursday, February 12, 2015

China's January prices: Does inflation equal demand?

Globalisation means stronger growth AND lower inflation. The resulting excess supply of money bodes well for asset markets. January inflation.... Read More >>